Validation of statistical shape modelling to predict hip osteoarthritis in females: data from two prospective cohort studies (Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee and Chingford)

R. Agricola, K.M. Leyland, S.M.A. Bierma-Zeinstra, G.E. Thomas, P.J. Emans, T.D. Spector, H. Weinans, J.H. Waarsing, N.K. Arden

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


Objectives. To prospectively investigate whether hip shape variants at baseline are associated with the need for future total hip replacement ( THR) in women and to validate the resulting associated shape variants of the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee ( CHECK) cohort and the Chingford cohort. Methods. Female participants from the CHECK cohort without radiographic OA ( Kellgren - Lawrence score <2) at baseline were included ( 1100 hips); 22 hips had a THR within 5 years of follow- up. For the Chingford cohort, with only female participants, hips without radiographic OA at baseline were selected and a nested case - control design was used, with 19 THR cases within 19 years of follow- up and 95 controls matched 5 to 1 for age and BMI. Hip shape on baseline anteroposterior pelvic radiographs was assessed by statistical shape modelling ( SSM) using the same model for both cohorts. Results. In the CHECK and Chingford cohorts, the respective mean age was 55.8 ( S. D. 5.1) and 53.6 ( S. D. 5.4) and the BMI was 26.14 ( S. D. 4.3) and 25.7 ( S. D. 3.3), respectively. Multiple shape variants of the hip were significantly ( P<0.05) associated with future THR in both the CHECK ( modes 4, 11, 15, 17 and 22) and Chingford ( modes 2 and 17) cohorts. Mode 17 [ odds ratio ( OR) 0.51 ( 95% CI 0.33, 0.80) in the CHECK cohort], representing a flattened head - neck junction and flat greater trochanter, could be confirmed in the Chingford cohort [ OR 0.41 ( 95% CI 0.23, 0.82)]. Modes 4 and 15 of the CHECK cohort also showed non- significant trends in the Chingford cohort. Conclusion. Several baseline shape variants are associated with the future need for THR within a cohort. Despite differences in participant characteristics, radiographic protocol and follow- up time, we could validate at least one shape variant, suggesting that SSM is reasonably transferable between cohorts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2033-2041
Number of pages9
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015


  • hip shape
  • morphology
  • osteoarthritis
  • total hip replacement
  • validation
  • radiography
  • epidemiology
  • statistical shape modelling
  • active shape modelling
  • RISK

Cite this

Agricola, R., Leyland, K. M., Bierma-Zeinstra, S. M. A., Thomas, G. E., Emans, P. J., Spector, T. D., Weinans, H., Waarsing, J. H., & Arden, N. K. (2015). Validation of statistical shape modelling to predict hip osteoarthritis in females: data from two prospective cohort studies (Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee and Chingford). Rheumatology, 54(11), 2033-2041.