TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk Models for Developing Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy
T2 - Validation in a Nationwide Prospective Cohort
AU - Schouten, Thijs J
AU - Henry, Anne Claire
AU - Smits, F Jasmijn
AU - Besselink, Marc G
AU - Bonsing, Bert A
AU - Bosscha, Koop
AU - Busch, Olivier R
AU - van Dam, Ronald M
AU - van Eijck, Casper H
AU - Festen, Sebastiaan
AU - Groot Koerkamp, Bas
AU - van der Harst, Erwin
AU - de Hingh, Ignace H J T
AU - Kazemier, Geert
AU - Liem, Mike S L
AU - de Meijer, Vincent E
AU - Patijn, Gijs A
AU - Roos, Daphne
AU - Schreinemakers, Jennifer M J
AU - Stommel, Martijn W J
AU - Wit, Fennie
AU - Daamen, Lois A
AU - Molenaar, I Quintus
AU - van Santvoort, Hjalmar C
AU - Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Group
PY - 2023/12/1
Y1 - 2023/12/1
N2 - OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of published fistula risk models by external validation, and to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Multiple risk models have been developed to predict POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy. External validation in high-quality prospective cohorts is, however, lacking or only performed for individual models. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of data from the stepped-wedge cluster randomized PORSCH trial was performed. Included were all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy in the Netherlands (January 2018-November 2019). Risk models on POPF were identified by a systematic literature search. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration plots. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with clinically relevant POPF. RESULTS: Overall, 1358 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included, of whom 341 patients (25%) developed clinically relevant POPF. Fourteen risk models for POPF were evaluated, with AUCs ranging from 0.62-0.70. The updated alternative fistula risk score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.69-0.72). The alternative fistula risk score demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.71), whilst an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.69-0.71) was also found for the model by Petrova et al Soft pancreatic texture, pathology other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, small pancreatic duct diameter, higher body-mass index, minimally invasive resection and male sex were identified as independent predictors of POPF. CONCLUSION: Published risk models predicting clinically relevant POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy have a moderate predictive accuracy. Their clinical applicability to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment strategies is therefore questionable.
AB - OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of published fistula risk models by external validation, and to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Multiple risk models have been developed to predict POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy. External validation in high-quality prospective cohorts is, however, lacking or only performed for individual models. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of data from the stepped-wedge cluster randomized PORSCH trial was performed. Included were all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy in the Netherlands (January 2018-November 2019). Risk models on POPF were identified by a systematic literature search. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration plots. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with clinically relevant POPF. RESULTS: Overall, 1358 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included, of whom 341 patients (25%) developed clinically relevant POPF. Fourteen risk models for POPF were evaluated, with AUCs ranging from 0.62-0.70. The updated alternative fistula risk score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.69-0.72). The alternative fistula risk score demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.71), whilst an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.69-0.71) was also found for the model by Petrova et al Soft pancreatic texture, pathology other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, small pancreatic duct diameter, higher body-mass index, minimally invasive resection and male sex were identified as independent predictors of POPF. CONCLUSION: Published risk models predicting clinically relevant POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy have a moderate predictive accuracy. Their clinical applicability to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment strategies is therefore questionable.
U2 - 10.1097/SLA.0000000000005824
DO - 10.1097/SLA.0000000000005824
M3 - Article
SN - 0003-4932
VL - 278
SP - 1001
EP - 1008
JO - Annals of Surgery
JF - Annals of Surgery
IS - 6
ER -