Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium

Martin Bahls; Matthias W. Lorenz; Marcus Doerr; Lu Gao; Kazuo Kitagawa; Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen; Stefan Agewall; Gerald Berenson; Alberico L. Catapano; Giuseppe D. Norata; Michiel L. Bots; Wiek van Gilst; Folkert W. Asselbergs; Frank P. Brouwers; Heiko Uthoff; Dirk Sander; Holger Poppert; Michael Hecht Olsen; Jean Philippe Empana; Ulf Schminke; Damiano Baldassarre; Fabrizio Veglia; Oscar H. Franco; Maryam Kavousi; Eric de Groot; Ellisiv B. Mathiesen; Liliana Grigore; Joseph F. Polak; Tatjana Rundek; Coen D. A. Stehouwer; Michael R. Skilton; Apostolos Hatzitolios; Christos Savopoulos; George Ntaios; Matthieu Plichart; Stela McLachlan; Lars Lind; Peter Willeit; Helmuth Steinmetz; Moise Desvarieux; M. Arfan Ikram; Stein Harald Johnsen; Caroline Schmidt; Johann Willeit; Pierre Ducimetiere; Jackie F. Price; Goran Bergstrom; Jussi Kauhanen; Stefan Kiechl; Matthias Sitzer; PROG-IMT Study Grp

doi:10.1177/2047487319877078

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium

Martin Bahls^*, Matthias W. Lorenz, Marcus Doerr, Lu Gao, Kazuo Kitagawa, Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen, Stefan Agewall, Gerald Berenson, Alberico L. Catapano, Giuseppe D. Norata, Michiel L. Bots, Wiek van Gilst, Folkert W. Asselbergs, Frank P. Brouwers, Heiko Uthoff, Dirk Sander, Holger Poppert, Michael Hecht Olsen, Jean Philippe Empana, Ulf SchminkeDamiano Baldassarre, Fabrizio Veglia, Oscar H. Franco, Maryam Kavousi, Eric de Groot, Ellisiv B. Mathiesen, Liliana Grigore, Joseph F. Polak, Tatjana Rundek, Coen D. A. Stehouwer, Michael R. Skilton, Apostolos Hatzitolios, Christos Savopoulos, George Ntaios, Matthieu Plichart, Stela McLachlan, Lars Lind, Peter Willeit, Helmuth Steinmetz, Moise Desvarieux, M. Arfan Ikram, Stein Harald Johnsen, Caroline Schmidt, Johann Willeit, Pierre Ducimetiere, Jackie F. Price, Goran Bergstrom, Jussi Kauhanen, Stefan Kiechl, Matthias Sitzer, PROG-IMT Study Grp

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Aims Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear.

Methods and results An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events.

Conclusion Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Original language	English
Article number	2047487319877078
Pages (from-to)	234-243
Number of pages	10
Journal	European Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Volume	27
Issue number	3
Early online date	16 Oct 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/2047487319877078
Publication status	Published - Feb 2020

Keywords

Risk factors
CVD biomarker
risk factor progression
INTIMA-MEDIA THICKNESS
CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE
CAROTID-ARTERY INTIMA
DENSITY-LIPOPROTEIN CHOLESTEROL
DIASTOLIC BLOOD-PRESSURE
MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION
BASE-LINE
ATHEROSCLEROSIS
STROKE
METAANALYSIS

Access to Document

10.1177/2047487319877078Licence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

Bahls, M., Lorenz, M. W., Doerr, M., Gao, L., Kitagawa, K., Tuomainen, T.-P., Agewall, S., Berenson, G., Catapano, A. L., Norata, G. D., Bots, M. L., van Gilst, W., Asselbergs, F. W., Brouwers, F. P., Uthoff, H., Sander, D., Poppert, H., Olsen, M. H., Empana, J. P., ... PROG-IMT Study Grp (2020). Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium. European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 27(3), 234-243. Article 2047487319877078. https://doi.org/10.1177/2047487319877078

@article{b26700d0cb61419eab34f91795ad5c1c,

title = "Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium",

abstract = "Aims Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear.Methods and results An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events.Conclusion Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.",

keywords = "Risk factors, CVD biomarker, risk factor progression, INTIMA-MEDIA THICKNESS, CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE, CAROTID-ARTERY INTIMA, DENSITY-LIPOPROTEIN CHOLESTEROL, DIASTOLIC BLOOD-PRESSURE, MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION, BASE-LINE, ATHEROSCLEROSIS, STROKE, METAANALYSIS",

author = "Martin Bahls and Lorenz, {Matthias W.} and Marcus Doerr and Lu Gao and Kazuo Kitagawa and Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen and Stefan Agewall and Gerald Berenson and Catapano, {Alberico L.} and Norata, {Giuseppe D.} and Bots, {Michiel L.} and {van Gilst}, Wiek and Asselbergs, {Folkert W.} and Brouwers, {Frank P.} and Heiko Uthoff and Dirk Sander and Holger Poppert and Olsen, {Michael Hecht} and Empana, {Jean Philippe} and Ulf Schminke and Damiano Baldassarre and Fabrizio Veglia and Franco, {Oscar H.} and Maryam Kavousi and {de Groot}, Eric and Mathiesen, {Ellisiv B.} and Liliana Grigore and Polak, {Joseph F.} and Tatjana Rundek and Stehouwer, {Coen D. A.} and Skilton, {Michael R.} and Apostolos Hatzitolios and Christos Savopoulos and George Ntaios and Matthieu Plichart and Stela McLachlan and Lars Lind and Peter Willeit and Helmuth Steinmetz and Moise Desvarieux and Ikram, {M. Arfan} and Johnsen, {Stein Harald} and Caroline Schmidt and Johann Willeit and Pierre Ducimetiere and Price, {Jackie F.} and Goran Bergstrom and Jussi Kauhanen and Stefan Kiechl and Matthias Sitzer and {PROG-IMT Study Grp}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors used a restricted access dataset of the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study. The ARIC Study was supported by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (Bethesda, MD, USA) in collaboration with the ARIC Study investigators. This article does not necessarily convey the opinions or views of the ARIC Study or the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The European Society of Cardiology 2019.",

year = "2020",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1177/2047487319877078",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

pages = "234--243",

journal = "European Journal of Preventive Cardiology",

issn = "2047-4873",

publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",

number = "3",

}

Bahls, M, Lorenz, MW, Doerr, M, Gao, L, Kitagawa, K, Tuomainen, T-P, Agewall, S, Berenson, G, Catapano, AL, Norata, GD, Bots, ML, van Gilst, W, Asselbergs, FW, Brouwers, FP, Uthoff, H, Sander, D, Poppert, H, Olsen, MH, Empana, JP, Schminke, U, Baldassarre, D, Veglia, F, Franco, OH, Kavousi, M, de Groot, E, Mathiesen, EB, Grigore, L, Polak, JF, Rundek, T, Stehouwer, CDA, Skilton, MR, Hatzitolios, A, Savopoulos, C, Ntaios, G, Plichart, M, McLachlan, S, Lind, L, Willeit, P, Steinmetz, H, Desvarieux, M, Ikram, MA, Johnsen, SH, Schmidt, C, Willeit, J, Ducimetiere, P, Price, JF, Bergstrom, G, Kauhanen, J, Kiechl, S, Sitzer, M & PROG-IMT Study Grp 2020, 'Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium', European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, vol. 27, no. 3, 2047487319877078, pp. 234-243. https://doi.org/10.1177/2047487319877078

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium. / Bahls, Martin; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Doerr, Marcus et al.
In: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, Vol. 27, No. 3, 2047487319877078, 02.2020, p. 234-243.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals

T2 - insights from the PROG-IMT consortium

AU - Bahls, Martin

AU - Lorenz, Matthias W.

AU - Doerr, Marcus

AU - Gao, Lu

AU - Kitagawa, Kazuo

AU - Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka

AU - Agewall, Stefan

AU - Berenson, Gerald

AU - Catapano, Alberico L.

AU - Norata, Giuseppe D.

AU - Bots, Michiel L.

AU - van Gilst, Wiek

AU - Asselbergs, Folkert W.

AU - Brouwers, Frank P.

AU - Uthoff, Heiko

AU - Sander, Dirk

AU - Poppert, Holger

AU - Olsen, Michael Hecht

AU - Empana, Jean Philippe

AU - Schminke, Ulf

AU - Baldassarre, Damiano

AU - Veglia, Fabrizio

AU - Franco, Oscar H.

AU - Kavousi, Maryam

AU - de Groot, Eric

AU - Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.

AU - Grigore, Liliana

AU - Polak, Joseph F.

AU - Rundek, Tatjana

AU - Stehouwer, Coen D. A.

AU - Skilton, Michael R.

AU - Hatzitolios, Apostolos

AU - Savopoulos, Christos

AU - Ntaios, George

AU - Plichart, Matthieu

AU - McLachlan, Stela

AU - Lind, Lars

AU - Willeit, Peter

AU - Steinmetz, Helmuth

AU - Desvarieux, Moise

AU - Ikram, M. Arfan

AU - Johnsen, Stein Harald

AU - Schmidt, Caroline

AU - Willeit, Johann

AU - Ducimetiere, Pierre

AU - Price, Jackie F.

AU - Bergstrom, Goran

AU - Kauhanen, Jussi

AU - Kiechl, Stefan

AU - Sitzer, Matthias

AU - PROG-IMT Study Grp

N1 - Funding Information: The authors used a restricted access dataset of the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study. The ARIC Study was supported by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (Bethesda, MD, USA) in collaboration with the ARIC Study investigators. This article does not necessarily convey the opinions or views of the ARIC Study or the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. Publisher Copyright: © The European Society of Cardiology 2019.

PY - 2020/2

Y1 - 2020/2

N2 - Aims Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear.Methods and results An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events.Conclusion Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

AB - Aims Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear.Methods and results An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events.Conclusion Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

KW - Risk factors

KW - CVD biomarker

KW - risk factor progression

KW - INTIMA-MEDIA THICKNESS

KW - CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE

KW - CAROTID-ARTERY INTIMA

KW - DENSITY-LIPOPROTEIN CHOLESTEROL

KW - DIASTOLIC BLOOD-PRESSURE

KW - MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION

KW - BASE-LINE

KW - ATHEROSCLEROSIS

KW - STROKE

KW - METAANALYSIS

U2 - 10.1177/2047487319877078

DO - 10.1177/2047487319877078

M3 - Article

C2 - 31619084

SN - 2047-4873

VL - 27

SP - 234

EP - 243

JO - European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

JF - European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

IS - 3

M1 - 2047487319877078

ER -