Optimising follow-up strategy based on cytology and human papillomavirus after fertility-sparing surgery for early stage cervical cancer: a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The optimal follow-up strategy to detect recurrence after fertility-sparing surgery for early stage cervical cancer is unknown. Tailored surveillance based on individual risks could contribute to improved efficiency and, subsequently, reduce costs in health care. The aim of this study was to establish the predictive value of cervical cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing to detect recurrent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+; including recurrent cervical cancer) after fertility-sparing surgery. METHODS: In this nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study, we used data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Databank. All patients aged 18-40 years with cervical cancer of any histology who received fertility-sparing surgery (ie, large loop excision of the transformation zone, conisation, or trachelectomy) between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2020, were included. Pathology data from diagnosis, treatment, and during follow-up were analysed. The primary and secondary outcomes were the cumulative incidence of recurrent CIN2+ and recurrence-free survival, overall and stratified by results for cytology and high-risk HPV. FINDINGS: 1548 patients were identified, of whom 1462 met the inclusion criteria. Of these included patients, 19?568 pathology reports were available. The median age at diagnosis was 31 years (IQR 30-35). After a median follow-up of 6·1 years (IQR 3·3-10·8), recurrent CIN2+ was diagnosed in 128 patients (cumulative incidence 15·0%, 95% CI 11·5-18·2), including 52 patients (cumulative incidence 5·4%, 95% CI 3·7-7·0) with recurrent cervical cancer. The overall 10-year recurrence-free survival for CIN2+ was 89·3% (95% CI 87·4-91·3). By cytology at first follow-up visit within 12 months after fertility-sparing surgery, 10-year recurrence-free survival for CIN2+ was 92·1% (90·2-94·1) in patients with normal cytology, 84·6% (77·4-92·3) in those with low-grade cytology, and 43·1% (26·4-70·2) in those with high-grade cytology. By high-risk HPV status at first follow-up visit within 12 months after surgery, 10-year recurrence-free survival for CIN2+ was 91·1% (85·3-97·3) in patients who were negative for high-risk HPV and 73·6% (58·4-92·8) in those who were positive for high-risk HPV. Cumulative incidence of recurrent CIN2+ within 6 months after any follow-up visit (6-24 months) in patients negative for high-risk HPV with normal or low-grade cytology was 0·0-0·7% and with high-grade cytology was 0·0-33·3%. Cumulative incidence of recurrence in patients positive for high-risk HPV with normal or low-grade cytology were 0·0-15·4% and with high-grade cytology were 50·0-100·0%. None of the patients who were negative for high-risk HPV without high-grade cytology, at 6 months and 12 months, developed recurrence. INTERPRETATION: Patients who are negative for high-risk HPV with normal or low-grade cytology at 6-24 months after fertility-sparing surgery, could be offered a prolonged follow-up interval of 6 months. This group comprises 80% of all patients receiving fertility-sparing surgery. An interval of 12 months seems to be safe after two consecutive negative tests for high-risk HPV with an absence of high-grade cytology, which accounts for nearly 75% of all patients who receive fertility-sparing surgery. FUNDING: KWF Dutch Cancer Society.