On the move again? Residential trajectories of refugees after obtaining asylum in the Netherlands

Efforts by European countries to disperse refugees across the country often implicitly presuppose permanent settlement in dispersal locations. Migrant (re)settlement theories, however, suggest that onward mobility after (social) housing allocation is a more likely outcome. This paper explores refugees' onward residential trajectories after dispersal in the Netherlands, including possible onward international mobility. We follow refugees who entered the municipal registers in 1998 and 1999 (N = 13,490) over a ten-year period after taking up residence in the first private dwelling. We find that residential trajectories are related to the household situation and vary considerably across origin groups. In general, 'stable trajectories', with a continuation of the type of initial location after dispersal (rural, suburban or urban), are most common. About half of the refugees who stayed in the Netherlands did not leave the municipality of allocation during their a private housing trajectory. Yet, those who were allocated to rural municipalities have in the majority of the cases relocated over time. We find some evidence that social networks and transitions to home ownership are associated with rural to urban movement. Recent policy changes that allow for more participation in the housing allocation procedures of the refugees themselves may reduce resettlement needs and costs for refugees.