Machine learning for normal tissue complication probability prediction: Predictive power with versatility and easy implementation

Background and purpose: A popular Normal tissue Complication (NTCP) model deployed to predict radiotherapy (RT) toxicity is the Lyman-Burman Kutcher (LKB) model of tissue complication. Despite the LKB model's popularity, it can suffer from numerical instability and considers only the generalized mean dose (GMD) to an organ. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can potentially offer superior predictive power of the LKB model, and with fewer drawbacks. Here we examine the numerical characteristics and predictive power of the LKB model and compare these with those of ML.Materials and methods: Both an LKB model and ML models were used to predict G2 Xerostomia on patients following RT for head and neck cancer, using the dose volume histogram of parotid glands as the input feature. Model speed, convergence characteristics and predictive power was evaluated on an independent training set.Results: We found that only global optimization algorithms could guarantee a convergent and predictive LKB model. At the same time our results showed that ML models remained unconditionally convergent and predictive, while staying robust to gradient descent optimization. ML models outperform LKB in Brier score and accuracy but compare to LKB in ROC-AUC.Conclusion: We have demonstrated that ML models can quantify NTCP better than or as well as LKB models, even for a toxicity that the LKB model is particularly well suited to predict. ML models can offer this performance while offering fundamental advantages in model convergence, speed, and flexibility, and so could offer an alternative to the LKB model that could potentially be used in clinical RT planning decisions.