Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation: towards a comprehensive strategy

Lisa Van den Bosch; Ewoud Schuit; Hans Paul van der Laan; Johannes B. Reitsma; Karel G. M. Moons; Roel J. H. M. Steenbakkers; Frank J. P. Hoebers; Johannes A. Langendijk; Arjen van der Schaaf

doi:10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012

Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation: towards a comprehensive strategy

Lisa Van den Bosch^*, Ewoud Schuit, Hans Paul van der Laan, Johannes B. Reitsma, Karel G. M. Moons, Roel J. H. M. Steenbakkers, Frank J. P. Hoebers, Johannes A. Langendijk, Arjen van der Schaaf

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction of multiple complication grades at multiple time points. The methodological approaches chosen are aimed to improve the accuracy, transparency and robustness of future NTCP-models. We demonstrate our methodological approaches using clinical data. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	151-156
Number of pages	6
Journal	Radiotherapy and Oncology
Volume	148
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012
Publication status	Published - Jul 2020

Keywords

Normal Tissue Complication Probability models
Normal tissue
Statistical methods
Head and neck
MULTIVARIABLE PREDICTION MODEL
INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS
DIAGNOSIS TRIPOD
IMPUTATION
RADIOTHERAPY
PROTONS
RISK

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10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

Van den Bosch, L., Schuit, E., van der Laan, H. P., Reitsma, J. B., Moons, K. G. M., Steenbakkers, R. J. H. M., Hoebers, F. J. P., Langendijk, J. A., & van der Schaaf, A. (2020). Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation: towards a comprehensive strategy. Radiotherapy and Oncology, 148, 151-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012

@article{bab0807c34084ddaae8ccb6fe6ac91dc,

title = "Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation: towards a comprehensive strategy",

abstract = "Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction of multiple complication grades at multiple time points. The methodological approaches chosen are aimed to improve the accuracy, transparency and robustness of future NTCP-models. We demonstrate our methodological approaches using clinical data. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",

keywords = "Normal Tissue Complication Probability models, Normal tissue, Statistical methods, Head and neck, MULTIVARIABLE PREDICTION MODEL, INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS, DIAGNOSIS TRIPOD, IMPUTATION, RADIOTHERAPY, PROTONS, RISK",

author = "{Van den Bosch}, Lisa and Ewoud Schuit and {van der Laan}, {Hans Paul} and Reitsma, {Johannes B.} and Moons, {Karel G. M.} and Steenbakkers, {Roel J. H. M.} and Hoebers, {Frank J. P.} and Langendijk, {Johannes A.} and {van der Schaaf}, Arjen",

note = "Funding Information: This study was financially supported by a grant from the Dutch Cancer Society (KWF project RUG 2015-7899 ). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors",

year = "2020",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012",

language = "English",

volume = "148",

pages = "151--156",

journal = "Radiotherapy and Oncology",

issn = "0167-8140",

publisher = "Elsevier Ireland Ltd",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Key challenges in normal tissue complication probability model development and validation

T2 - towards a comprehensive strategy

AU - Van den Bosch, Lisa

AU - Schuit, Ewoud

AU - van der Laan, Hans Paul

AU - Reitsma, Johannes B.

AU - Moons, Karel G. M.

AU - Steenbakkers, Roel J. H. M.

AU - Hoebers, Frank J. P.

AU - Langendijk, Johannes A.

AU - van der Schaaf, Arjen

PY - 2020/7

Y1 - 2020/7

N2 - Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction of multiple complication grades at multiple time points. The methodological approaches chosen are aimed to improve the accuracy, transparency and robustness of future NTCP-models. We demonstrate our methodological approaches using clinical data. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

AB - Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction of multiple complication grades at multiple time points. The methodological approaches chosen are aimed to improve the accuracy, transparency and robustness of future NTCP-models. We demonstrate our methodological approaches using clinical data. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

KW - Normal Tissue Complication Probability models

KW - Normal tissue

KW - Statistical methods

KW - Head and neck

KW - MULTIVARIABLE PREDICTION MODEL

KW - INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS

KW - DIAGNOSIS TRIPOD

KW - IMPUTATION

KW - RADIOTHERAPY

KW - PROTONS

KW - RISK

U2 - 10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012

DO - 10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.012

M3 - Article

C2 - 32388149

SN - 0167-8140

VL - 148

SP - 151

EP - 156

JO - Radiotherapy and Oncology

JF - Radiotherapy and Oncology

ER -