International migration: The future challenges for Europe

This chapter will examine four key challenges facing Europe over the years to 2050 with respect to international migration. The common assumption is that Europe is facing a crisis in migration and that too many people will try to enter from the global South bringing a challenge to its economy and its cultural integrity. The assumption is correct in that migration will bring a challenge for a future Europe but perhaps not in quite the ways that many expect. First, finding the labour that Europe, and particularly Western and Southern Europe, will need may prove more difficult than anticipated and the emergence of new nodes of attraction for migrants in the European periphery will be examined. Second, Europe will need to move from a region that needs labour to a region that wants migrants and sees migrants as part of state building. This will provide a challenge to both indigenous and immigrant populations as national tensions between European states are reinforced by trans-regional tensions. Third, the challenge of migration and development will be considered: that Europe can seek migrants without prejudicing the development prospects of the main areas of origin of migration. Will Europe be a cause of brain drain or a support of brain circulation and development? Finally, and perhaps most crucially, Europe will have to live in a world where the centres of global dynamism have shifted to Asia and to the dominance of trans-Pacific rather than trans-Atlantic relations. The challenge of the future development of China and India on global migration will be considered from the perspective of Europe and its possible impact on population movement to that continent.