Forced migration and local public policies: Evidence from post-war West Germany

Arnaud Chevalier; Benjamin Elsner; Andreas Lichter; Nico Pestel

doi:10.1093/jeea/jvad043

Forced migration and local public policies: Evidence from post-war West Germany

Arnaud Chevalier^*, Benjamin Elsner, Andreas Lichter, Nico Pestel

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.

Original language	English
Article number	jvad043
Pages (from-to)	915–962
Number of pages	48
Journal	Journal of the European Economic Association
Volume	22
Issue number	2
Early online date	25 Jul 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad043
Publication status	Published - 2024

JEL classifications

d31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
d72 - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
h71 - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
h72 - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
j61 - "Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers"

Keywords

ECONOMIC-IMPACT
IMMIGRATION
EXPELLEES
INSTITUTIONS
TECHNOLOGY
REFUGEES
INFLOWS
LESSONS
COSTS
SIZE

Access to Document

10.1093/jeea/jvad043Licence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{e9fc36b3589a4b2693c426a1d89e3743,

title = "Forced migration and local public policies: Evidence from post-war West Germany",

abstract = "We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.",

keywords = "ECONOMIC-IMPACT, IMMIGRATION, EXPELLEES, INSTITUTIONS, TECHNOLOGY, REFUGEES, INFLOWS, LESSONS, COSTS, SIZE",

author = "Arnaud Chevalier and Benjamin Elsner and Andreas Lichter and Nico Pestel",

note = "data source: - Statistical Yearbook of Expellees, published by the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt (1953). Statistisches Taschenbuch {\"u}ber die Heimatvertriebenen. Wiesbaden.) - Statistical Yearbook of German Municipalities 1936-1964 - Statistical Yearbook of the German Reich in 1925, 1939 - Bundesstudie 1953. GESIS Datenarchiv, K{\"o}ln. ZA0145 Datenfile Version 2.0.0, https://doi.org/10.4232/1.11992 - King, G., Rosen, O., Tanner, M. and Wagner, A. F. (2008). Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler. Journal of Economic History 68: 951–996. - Czech and Polish censuses on the county-level number of ethnic Germans in 1930 and 1931, respectively (Ourednicek, M., Kupkova, L., Pospisilova, L., Simon, M., Svoboda, P., Soukup, M., Marvanova, P. and Krivka, M. (2015). Administrative boundaries of judicial districts 1930. Geodatabase. Prague: Charles University, Faculty of Science, Urban and Regional Laboratory., Central Statistical Office of the Polish Republic (1931). The second general census (1931): Flats and households, population, occupations. Statistical Office of the Polish Republic .). - Statistisches Bundesamt (1956). Geb{\"a}ude- und Wohnungsz{\"a}hlung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland vom 13. September 1950. Statistik der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Band 38. - German Statistical Office{\textquoteright}s publications of all candidates running for parliament in the elections in 1949, 1953, 1957, and 1961 (Die Wahlbewerber zum Deutschen Bundestag)",

year = "2024",

doi = "10.1093/jeea/jvad043",

language = "English",

volume = "22",

pages = "915–962",

journal = "Journal of the European Economic Association",

issn = "1542-4766",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forced migration and local public policies

T2 - Evidence from post-war West Germany

AU - Chevalier, Arnaud

AU - Elsner, Benjamin

AU - Lichter, Andreas

AU - Pestel, Nico

N1 - data source: - Statistical Yearbook of Expellees, published by the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt (1953). Statistisches Taschenbuch über die Heimatvertriebenen. Wiesbaden.) - Statistical Yearbook of German Municipalities 1936-1964 - Statistical Yearbook of the German Reich in 1925, 1939 - Bundesstudie 1953. GESIS Datenarchiv, Köln. ZA0145 Datenfile Version 2.0.0, https://doi.org/10.4232/1.11992 - King, G., Rosen, O., Tanner, M. and Wagner, A. F. (2008). Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler. Journal of Economic History 68: 951–996. - Czech and Polish censuses on the county-level number of ethnic Germans in 1930 and 1931, respectively (Ourednicek, M., Kupkova, L., Pospisilova, L., Simon, M., Svoboda, P., Soukup, M., Marvanova, P. and Krivka, M. (2015). Administrative boundaries of judicial districts 1930. Geodatabase. Prague: Charles University, Faculty of Science, Urban and Regional Laboratory., Central Statistical Office of the Polish Republic (1931). The second general census (1931): Flats and households, population, occupations. Statistical Office of the Polish Republic .). - Statistisches Bundesamt (1956). Gebäude- und Wohnungszählung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland vom 13. September 1950. Statistik der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Band 38. - German Statistical Office’s publications of all candidates running for parliament in the elections in 1949, 1953, 1957, and 1961 (Die Wahlbewerber zum Deutschen Bundestag)

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.

AB - We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.

KW - ECONOMIC-IMPACT

KW - IMMIGRATION

KW - EXPELLEES

KW - INSTITUTIONS

KW - TECHNOLOGY

KW - REFUGEES

KW - INFLOWS

KW - LESSONS

KW - COSTS

KW - SIZE

U2 - 10.1093/jeea/jvad043

DO - 10.1093/jeea/jvad043

M3 - Article

SN - 1542-4766

VL - 22

SP - 915

EP - 962

JO - Journal of the European Economic Association

JF - Journal of the European Economic Association

IS - 2

M1 - jvad043

ER -