A prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, based on simple clinical parameters

Margot M. Koeneman*, Freyja H. M. van Lint, Sander M. J. van Kuijk, Luc J. M. Smits, Loes F. S. Kooreman, Roy F. P. M. Kruitwagen, Arnold J. Kruse

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

This study aims to develop a prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN 2) lesions based on simple clinicopathological parameters. The study was conducted at Maastricht University Medical Center, the Netherlands. The prediction model was developed in a retrospective cohort of 129 women with a histologic diagnosis of CIN 2 who were managed by watchful waiting for 6 to 24 months. Five potential predictors for spontaneous regression were selected based on the literature and expert opinion and were analyzed in a multivariable logistic regression model, followed by backward stepwise deletion based on the Wald test. The prediction model was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. Discriminative capacity and accuracy were tested by assessing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a calibration plot. Disease regression within 24 months was seen in 91 (71%) of 129 patients. A prediction model was developed including the following variables: smoking, Papanicolaou test outcome before the CIN 2 diagnosis, concomitant CIN 1 diagnosis in the same biopsy, and more than 1 biopsy containing CIN 2. Not smoking, Papanicolaou class

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)62-69
Number of pages8
JournalHuman Pathology
Volume59
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2017

Keywords

  • Prediction
  • CIN 2
  • Low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion
  • Regression
  • Personalized management
  • ELECTROSURGICAL EXCISION PROCEDURE
  • LOCAL IMMUNE-RESPONSE
  • EPITHELIAL BIOMARKERS
  • PROGNOSTIC BIOMARKERS
  • NATURAL-HISTORY
  • RISK-FACTORS
  • POPULATION
  • LESIONS
  • WOMEN
  • MANAGEMENT

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