Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects?: A Case Study on Electric Cars

D. Font Vivanco; A. Tukker; R. Kemp

doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b01871

Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars

D. Font Vivanco^*, A. Tukker, R. Kemp

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes - from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices - with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments. © 2016 American Chemical Society.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	11366-11376
Number of pages	11
Journal	Environmental Science & Technology
Volume	50
Issue number	20
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b01871
Publication status	Published - 18 Oct 2016

Keywords

Sensitivity analysis
Background systems
Economic condition
Environmental assessment methods
Environmental burdens
Environmental model
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
Resource efficiencies
Total cost of ownership
Life cycle
LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT
EXTENSIONS
EMISSIONS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
US HOUSEHOLDS
EUROPE
UK HOUSEHOLDS
INPUT-OUTPUT-ANALYSIS
IMPACTS
CONSUMPTION

Access to Document

10.1021/acs.est.6b01871

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84992079519&doi=10.1021%2facs.est.6b01871&partnerID=40&md5=96708236b1d1fae95b9b7cc402c744c4

Cite this

@article{1a46f91de39f48d281bdc94d6a6bbd16,

title = "Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects?: A Case Study on Electric Cars",

abstract = "Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes - from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices - with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments. {\textcopyright} 2016 American Chemical Society.",

keywords = "Sensitivity analysis, Background systems, Economic condition, Environmental assessment methods, Environmental burdens, Environmental model, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Resource efficiencies, Total cost of ownership, Life cycle, LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT, EXTENSIONS, EMISSIONS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, US HOUSEHOLDS, EUROPE, UK HOUSEHOLDS, INPUT-OUTPUT-ANALYSIS, IMPACTS, CONSUMPTION",

author = "{Font Vivanco}, D. and A. Tukker and R. Kemp",

note = "Export Date: 8 December 2016 CODEN: ESTHA Correspondence Address: Font Vivanco, D.; Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale UniversityUnited States; email: david.fontvivanco@yale.edu References: Khazzoom, J.D., Economic implications of mandated efficiency in standards for household appliances (1980) Energy Journal, 1 (4), pp. 21-40; Brookes, L., The greenhouse effect: The fallacies in the energy efficiency solution (1990) Energy Policy, 18 (2), pp. 199-201; Binswanger, M., Technological progress and sustainable development: What about the rebound effect? (2001) Ecological Economics, 36 (1), pp. 119-132; Goedkoop, M., Van Halen, C., Te Riele, H., Rommens, P., (1999) Product Service Systems, Ecological and Economic Basics; Maxwell, D., Owen, P., McAndrew, L., Muehmel, K., Neubauer, A., (2011) Addressing the Rebound Effect, A Report for the European Commission Dg Environment; Herring, H., Sorrell, S., (2009) Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption: The Rebound Effect, , Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke, United Kingdom; Murray, C.K., What if consumers decided to all 'go green'? Environmental rebound effects from consumption decisions (2013) Energy Policy, 54, pp. 240-256; Font Vivanco, D., Freire-Gonz{\'a}lez, J., Kemp, R., Van Der Voet, E., The Remarkable Environmental Rebound Effect of Electric Cars: A Microeconomic Approach (2014) Environ. Sci. Technol., 48 (20), pp. 12063-12072; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S.K., Jackson, T., Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups (2014) Ecological Economics, 106, pp. 12-32; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S., (2012) The Rebound Effect: To What Extent Does It Vary with Income?, , Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey; Druckman, A., Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Jackson, T., Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households (2011) Energy Policy, 39 (6), pp. 3572-3581; Mizobuchi, K., An empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs (2008) Energy Economics, 30 (5), pp. 2486-2516; Schipper, L., Grubb, M., On the rebound? Feedback between energy intensities and energy uses in IEA countries (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 367-388; Lovins, A.B., Energy saving resulting from the adoption of more efficient appliances: Another view (1988) Energy Journal, 9 (2), pp. 155-162; Laitner, J.A., Energy efficiency: Rebounding to a sound analytical perspective (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 471-475; Sorrell, S., (2007) The Rebound Effect: An Assessment of the Evidence for Economy-Wide Energy Savings from Improved Energy Efficiency. Project Report; Font Vivanco, D., Van Der Voet, E., The rebound effect through industrial ecology's eyes: A review of LCA-based studies (2014) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 19 (12), pp. 1933-1947; Sperling, D., Gordon, D., (2009) Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, , Oxford University Press: Oxford, United Kingdom; Ekvall, T., Tillman, A.-M., Molander, S., Normative ethics and methodology for life cycle assessment (2005) J. Cleaner Prod., 13 (1314), pp. 1225-1234; Guin{\'e}e, J.B., Gorr{\'e}e, M., Heijungs, R., Huppes, G., Kleijn, R., Koning, A.D., Oers, L.V., Huijbregts, M.A.J., (2002) Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment: Operational Guide to the ISO Standards, , Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, The Netherlands; Suh, S., (2009) Handbook of Input-Output Economics in Industrial Ecology, , Springer; Suh, S., Huppes, G., Methods for Life Cycle Inventory of a product (2005) J. Cleaner Prod., 13 (7), pp. 687-697; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S., Jackson, T., Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households (2012) Sustainable Lifestyles Research Group: Working Paper, pp. 01-12; Lenzen, M., Dey, C.J., Economic, energy and greenhouse emissions impacts of some consumer choice, technology and government outlay options (2002) Energy Economics, 24 (4), pp. 377-403; Lenzen, M., Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: An input-output analysis (1998) Energy Policy, 26 (6), pp. 495-506; Briceno, T., Peters, G., Solli, C., Hertwich, E., (2004) Using Life Cycle Approaches to Evaluate Sustainable Consumption Programs: Car-Sharing, p. 2004; Alfredsson, E.C., Green consumption - No solution for climate change (2004) Energy, 29 (4), pp. 513-524; Takase, K., Kondo, Y., Washizu, A., An Analysis of Sustainable Consumption by the Waste Input-Output Model (2005) J. Ind. Ecol., 9 (12), pp. 201-219; Nakamura, S., Kondo, Y., Input-Output Analysis of Waste Management (2002) J. Ind. Ecol., 6 (1), pp. 39-63; Br{\"a}nnlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordstr{\"o}m, J., Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: Effects on consumption and emissions (2007) Energy Economics, 29 (1), pp. 1-17; Thiesen, J., Christensen, T., Kristensen, T., Andersen, R., Brunoe, B., Gregersen, T., Thrane, M., Weidema, B., Rebound effects of price differences (2008) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 13 (2), pp. 104-114; Girod, B.V., (2008) Environmental Impact of Swiss Household Consumption, and Estimated Income Rebound Effects, p. 2008; Nakamura, M., Otoma, S., Analysis of CO2 Emission Originating from Household Consumption, Taking Attributes of Families into Account (2004) Environmental Science, 17 (5), pp. 389-401; Ornetzeder, M., Hertwich, E.G., Hubacek, K., Korytarova, K., Haas, W., The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna (2008) Ecological Economics, 65 (3), pp. 516-530; Weidema, B.P., Wesnaes, J., Hermansen, J., Kristensen, T., Halberg, N., (2008) Environmental Improvement Potentials of Meat and Dairy Products, p. 2008. , Luxembourg; Kratena, K., W{\"u}ger, M., (2010) The Full Impact of Energy Efficiency on Household's Energy Demand, , WIFO; Druckman, A., Bradley, P., Papathanasopoulou, E., Jackson, T., Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK (2008) Ecological Economics, 66 (4), pp. 594-604; Tukker, A., Goldbohm, R.A., De Koning, A., Verheijden, M., Kleijn, R., Wolf, O., P{\'e}rez-Dom{\'i}nguez, I., Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe (2011) Ecological Economics, 70 (10), pp. 1776-1788; Lenzen, M., Murray, S.A., Korte, B., Dey, C.J., Environmental impact assessment including indirect effects - A case study using input-output analysis (2003) Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 23 (3), pp. 263-282; Thomas, B.A., Azevedo, S.L., I, Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. Households with input-output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework (2013) Ecological Economics - Sustainable Urbanisation: A Resilient Future, 86, pp. 199-210. , In; Hendrickson, C., Lave, L., Matthews, S., (2006) Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services: An Input-Output Approach, , RFF Press: Washington D.C; Cellura, M., Di Gangi, A., Longo, S., Orioli, A., An Italian input-output model for the assessment of energy and environmental benefits arising from retrofit actions of buildings (2013) Energy and Buildings, 62, pp. 97-106; Cellura, M., Longo, S., Mistretta, M., The energy and environmental impacts of Italian households consumptions: An input-output approach (2011) Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev., 15 (8), pp. 3897-3908; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S.K., Jackson, T., Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households (2013) Energy Policy, 55, pp. 234-250; Lin, B., Liu, X., Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China (2013) Energy Policy, 57, pp. 329-337; Lin, B., Yang, F., Liu, X., A study of the rebound effect on China's current energy conservation and emissions reduction: Measures and policy choices (2013) Energy, 58, pp. 330-339; Font Vivanco, D., Kemp, R., Van Der Voet, E., The relativity of eco-innovation: Environmental rebound effects from past transport innovations in Europe (2015) J. Cleaner Prod., 101, pp. 71-85; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., (2015) Living Up to Expectations. Estimating Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects for UK Households, , Brighton, United Kingdom; (2010) A Portfolio of Power-Trains for Europe: A Fact-Based Analysis, p. 2010. , M&C; Hawkins, T.R., Singh, B., Majeau-Bettez, G., Stromman, A.H., Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles (2013) J. Ind. Ecol., 17 (1), pp. 53-64; Bartolozzi, I., Rizzi, F., Frey, M., Comparison between hydrogen and electric vehicles by life cycle assessment: A case study in Tuscany, Italy (2013) Appl. Energy, 101, pp. 103-111; (2014) European Vehicle Market Statistics. Pocketbook 2014, , ICCT. Berlin, Germany; (2014) EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions. Trends to 2050, , EC. Luxembourg; Freire-Gonz{\'a}lez, J., Methods to empirically estimate direct and indirect rebound effect of energy-saving technological changes in households (2011) Ecological Modelling - Can We Break the Addiction to Fossil Energy? Special Issue, 7th Biennial International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies, Barcelona, Spain, 19-21 October 2010, 223, pp. 32-40. , In; N{\"a}ss{\'e}n, J., Holmberg, J., Quantifying the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvements and energy conserving behaviour in Sweden (2009) Energy Efficiency, 2 (3), pp. 221-231; Berkhout, P.H.G., Muskens, J.C., Velthuijsen, W., Defining the rebound effect (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 425-432; Sorrell, S., Dimitropoulos, J., The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions (2008) Ecological Economics, 65 (3), pp. 636-649; (2014) Evolution. Electric Vehicles in Europe: Gearing Up for A New Phase?, , ARF/M&C; The Netherlands; De Jong, G., Gunn, H., Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe (2001) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 35 (2), pp. 137-160; Deaton, A., Muellbauer, J., An Almost Ideal Demand System (1980) American Economic Review, 70 (3), pp. 312-326; Eurostat Products datasets(2006), ISO. ISO14044:2006Environmental management - life cycle assessment - requirementsand guidelines(2010), Ecoinvent, Ecoinvent data v2.2, 2010. Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: SwitzerlandHeijungs, R., Suh, S., (2002) The Computational Structure of Life Cycle Assessment, , Kluwer Academic Publishers: The Netherlands; Joshi, S., Product Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment Using Input-Output Techniques (1999) J. Ind. Ecol., 3 (23), pp. 95-120; Gibbons, J.C., Wolsky, A.M., Tolley, G., Approximate aggregation and error in input-output models (1982) Resources and Energy, 4 (3), pp. 203-230; Lenzen, M., A Generalized Input-Output Multiplier Calculus for Australia (2001) Economic Systems Research, 13 (1), pp. 65-92; Udo De Haes, H.A., Heijungs, R., Suh, S., Huppes, G., Three Strategies to Overcome the Limitations of Life-Cycle Assessment (2004) J. Ind. Ecol., 8 (3), pp. 19-32; Lenzen, M., Errors in Conventional and Input-Output - Based Life - Cycle Inventories (2000) J. Ind. Ecol., 4 (4), pp. 127-148; Suh, S., Lenzen, M., Treloar, G.J., Hondo, H., Horvath, A., Huppes, G., Jolliet, O., Norris, G., System Boundary Selection in Life-Cycle Inventories Using Hybrid Approaches (2004) Environ. Sci. Technol., 38 (3), pp. 657-664; Vendries Algarin, J., Hawkins, T.R., Marriott, J., Scott Matthews, H., Khanna, V., Disaggregating the Power Generation Sector for Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (2015) J. Ind. Ecol., 19 (4), pp. 666-675; http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/prodcom/data/database, Eurostat Statistics on the production of manufactured goodsMiller, R.E., Blair, P.D., (2009) Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, , Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom; Leontief, W., Environmental repercussions and the economic structure: An input-output approach (1970) Review of Economics and Statistics, 52 (3), pp. 262-271; Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Raa, T.T., THE CHOICE of MODEL in the CONSTRUCTION of INDUSTRY COEFFICIENTS MATRICES (2009) Economic Systems Research, 21 (4), pp. 363-376; Huppes, G., De Koning, A., Guin{\'e}e, J., Heijungs, R., Van Oers, L., Cml, R.K., (2009) Environmental Impacts of Diet Changes in the EU Annex: Description of E3IOT; Timmer, M.P., Dietzenbacher, E., Los, B., Stehrer, R., De Vries, G.J., An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database: The Case of Global Automotive Production (2015) Review of International Economics, 23 (3), pp. 575-605; Tukker, A., De Koning, A., Wood, R., Hawkins, T., Lutter, S., Acosta, J., Rueda Cantuche, J.M., Kuenen, J., EXIOPOL - DEVELOPMENT and ILLUSTRATIVE ANALYSES of A DETAILED GLOBAL MR EE SUT/IOT (2013) Economic Systems Research, 25 (1), pp. 50-70; Saunders, H.D., A calculator for energy consumption changes arising from new technologies (2005) Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 5 (1). , 1935-1682; Huppes, G., De Koning, A., Suh, S., Heijungs, R., Van Oers, L., Nielsen, P., Guin{\'e}e, J.B., Environmental Impacts of Consumption in the European Union:High-Resolution Input-Output Tables with Detailed Environmental Extensions (2006) J. Ind. Ecol., 10 (3). , 129-146; Su, B., Huang, H.C., Ang, B.W., Zhou, P., Input-output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of sector aggregation (2010) Energy Economics, 32 (1), pp. 166-175; Moran, D., Wood, R., CONVERGENCE between the EORA, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and OPENEU'S CONSUMPTION-BASED CARBON ACCOUNTS (2014) Economic Systems Research, 26 (3), pp. 245-261; Thomas, B.A., Azevedo, S.L., I, Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. Households with input-output analysis. Part 2: Simulation (2013) Ecological Economics - Sustainable Urbanisation: A Resilient Future, 86, pp. 188-198. , In; Mattila, T.J., Pakarinen, S., Sokka, L., Quantifying the Total Environmental Impacts of an Industrial Symbiosis - A Comparison of Process-, Hybrid and Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (2010) Environ. Sci. Technol., 44 (11), pp. 4309-4314; Wiedmann, T.O., Suh, S., Feng, K., Lenzen, M., Acquaye, A., Scott, K., Barrett, J.R., Application of Hybrid Life Cycle Approaches to Emerging Energy Technologies - The Case of Wind Power in the UK (2011) Environ. Sci. Technol., 45 (13), pp. 5900-5907; Suh, S., Huppes, G., Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input-output analysis (2002) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 7 (3), pp. 134-140; Schoer, K., Wood, R., Arto, I., Weinzettel, J., Estimating Raw Material Equivalents on a Macro-Level: Comparison of Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis and Hybrid LCI-IO (2013) Environ. Sci. Technol., 47 (24), pp. 14282-14289; Weinzettel, J., Steen-Olsen, K., Hertwich, E.G., Borucke, M., Galli, A., Ecological footprint of nations: Comparison of process analysis, and standard and hybrid multiregional input-output analysis (2014) Ecological Economics, 101, pp. 115-126; Arto, I., Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Peters, G.P., COMPARING the GTAP-MRIO and WIOD DATABASES for CARBON FOOTPRINT ANALYSIS (2014) Economic Systems Research, 26 (3), pp. 327-353; Luo, L., Van Der Voet, E., Huppes, G., Udo De Haes, H., Allocation issues in LCA methodology: A case study of corn stover-based fuel ethanol (2009) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 14 (6), pp. 529-539",

year = "2016",

month = oct,

day = "18",

doi = "10.1021/acs.est.6b01871",

language = "English",

volume = "50",

pages = "11366--11376",

journal = "Environmental Science & Technology",

issn = "0013-936X",

publisher = "American Chemical Society",

number = "20",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects?

T2 - A Case Study on Electric Cars

AU - Font Vivanco, D.

AU - Tukker, A.

AU - Kemp, R.

N1 - Export Date: 8 December 2016 CODEN: ESTHA Correspondence Address: Font Vivanco, D.; Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale UniversityUnited States; email: david.fontvivanco@yale.edu References: Khazzoom, J.D., Economic implications of mandated efficiency in standards for household appliances (1980) Energy Journal, 1 (4), pp. 21-40; Brookes, L., The greenhouse effect: The fallacies in the energy efficiency solution (1990) Energy Policy, 18 (2), pp. 199-201; Binswanger, M., Technological progress and sustainable development: What about the rebound effect? (2001) Ecological Economics, 36 (1), pp. 119-132; Goedkoop, M., Van Halen, C., Te Riele, H., Rommens, P., (1999) Product Service Systems, Ecological and Economic Basics; Maxwell, D., Owen, P., McAndrew, L., Muehmel, K., Neubauer, A., (2011) Addressing the Rebound Effect, A Report for the European Commission Dg Environment; Herring, H., Sorrell, S., (2009) Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption: The Rebound Effect, , Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke, United Kingdom; Murray, C.K., What if consumers decided to all 'go green'? Environmental rebound effects from consumption decisions (2013) Energy Policy, 54, pp. 240-256; Font Vivanco, D., Freire-González, J., Kemp, R., Van Der Voet, E., The Remarkable Environmental Rebound Effect of Electric Cars: A Microeconomic Approach (2014) Environ. Sci. Technol., 48 (20), pp. 12063-12072; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S.K., Jackson, T., Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups (2014) Ecological Economics, 106, pp. 12-32; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S., (2012) The Rebound Effect: To What Extent Does It Vary with Income?, , Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey; Druckman, A., Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Jackson, T., Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households (2011) Energy Policy, 39 (6), pp. 3572-3581; Mizobuchi, K., An empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs (2008) Energy Economics, 30 (5), pp. 2486-2516; Schipper, L., Grubb, M., On the rebound? Feedback between energy intensities and energy uses in IEA countries (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 367-388; Lovins, A.B., Energy saving resulting from the adoption of more efficient appliances: Another view (1988) Energy Journal, 9 (2), pp. 155-162; Laitner, J.A., Energy efficiency: Rebounding to a sound analytical perspective (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 471-475; Sorrell, S., (2007) The Rebound Effect: An Assessment of the Evidence for Economy-Wide Energy Savings from Improved Energy Efficiency. Project Report; Font Vivanco, D., Van Der Voet, E., The rebound effect through industrial ecology's eyes: A review of LCA-based studies (2014) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 19 (12), pp. 1933-1947; Sperling, D., Gordon, D., (2009) Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, , Oxford University Press: Oxford, United Kingdom; Ekvall, T., Tillman, A.-M., Molander, S., Normative ethics and methodology for life cycle assessment (2005) J. Cleaner Prod., 13 (1314), pp. 1225-1234; Guinée, J.B., Gorrée, M., Heijungs, R., Huppes, G., Kleijn, R., Koning, A.D., Oers, L.V., Huijbregts, M.A.J., (2002) Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment: Operational Guide to the ISO Standards, , Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, The Netherlands; Suh, S., (2009) Handbook of Input-Output Economics in Industrial Ecology, , Springer; Suh, S., Huppes, G., Methods for Life Cycle Inventory of a product (2005) J. Cleaner Prod., 13 (7), pp. 687-697; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S., Jackson, T., Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households (2012) Sustainable Lifestyles Research Group: Working Paper, pp. 01-12; Lenzen, M., Dey, C.J., Economic, energy and greenhouse emissions impacts of some consumer choice, technology and government outlay options (2002) Energy Economics, 24 (4), pp. 377-403; Lenzen, M., Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: An input-output analysis (1998) Energy Policy, 26 (6), pp. 495-506; Briceno, T., Peters, G., Solli, C., Hertwich, E., (2004) Using Life Cycle Approaches to Evaluate Sustainable Consumption Programs: Car-Sharing, p. 2004; Alfredsson, E.C., Green consumption - No solution for climate change (2004) Energy, 29 (4), pp. 513-524; Takase, K., Kondo, Y., Washizu, A., An Analysis of Sustainable Consumption by the Waste Input-Output Model (2005) J. Ind. Ecol., 9 (12), pp. 201-219; Nakamura, S., Kondo, Y., Input-Output Analysis of Waste Management (2002) J. Ind. Ecol., 6 (1), pp. 39-63; Brännlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordström, J., Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: Effects on consumption and emissions (2007) Energy Economics, 29 (1), pp. 1-17; Thiesen, J., Christensen, T., Kristensen, T., Andersen, R., Brunoe, B., Gregersen, T., Thrane, M., Weidema, B., Rebound effects of price differences (2008) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 13 (2), pp. 104-114; Girod, B.V., (2008) Environmental Impact of Swiss Household Consumption, and Estimated Income Rebound Effects, p. 2008; Nakamura, M., Otoma, S., Analysis of CO2 Emission Originating from Household Consumption, Taking Attributes of Families into Account (2004) Environmental Science, 17 (5), pp. 389-401; Ornetzeder, M., Hertwich, E.G., Hubacek, K., Korytarova, K., Haas, W., The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna (2008) Ecological Economics, 65 (3), pp. 516-530; Weidema, B.P., Wesnaes, J., Hermansen, J., Kristensen, T., Halberg, N., (2008) Environmental Improvement Potentials of Meat and Dairy Products, p. 2008. , Luxembourg; Kratena, K., Wüger, M., (2010) The Full Impact of Energy Efficiency on Household's Energy Demand, , WIFO; Druckman, A., Bradley, P., Papathanasopoulou, E., Jackson, T., Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK (2008) Ecological Economics, 66 (4), pp. 594-604; Tukker, A., Goldbohm, R.A., De Koning, A., Verheijden, M., Kleijn, R., Wolf, O., Pérez-Domínguez, I., Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe (2011) Ecological Economics, 70 (10), pp. 1776-1788; Lenzen, M., Murray, S.A., Korte, B., Dey, C.J., Environmental impact assessment including indirect effects - A case study using input-output analysis (2003) Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 23 (3), pp. 263-282; Thomas, B.A., Azevedo, S.L., I, Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. Households with input-output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework (2013) Ecological Economics - Sustainable Urbanisation: A Resilient Future, 86, pp. 199-210. , In; Hendrickson, C., Lave, L., Matthews, S., (2006) Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services: An Input-Output Approach, , RFF Press: Washington D.C; Cellura, M., Di Gangi, A., Longo, S., Orioli, A., An Italian input-output model for the assessment of energy and environmental benefits arising from retrofit actions of buildings (2013) Energy and Buildings, 62, pp. 97-106; Cellura, M., Longo, S., Mistretta, M., The energy and environmental impacts of Italian households consumptions: An input-output approach (2011) Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev., 15 (8), pp. 3897-3908; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., Druckman, A., Firth, S.K., Jackson, T., Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households (2013) Energy Policy, 55, pp. 234-250; Lin, B., Liu, X., Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China (2013) Energy Policy, 57, pp. 329-337; Lin, B., Yang, F., Liu, X., A study of the rebound effect on China's current energy conservation and emissions reduction: Measures and policy choices (2013) Energy, 58, pp. 330-339; Font Vivanco, D., Kemp, R., Van Der Voet, E., The relativity of eco-innovation: Environmental rebound effects from past transport innovations in Europe (2015) J. Cleaner Prod., 101, pp. 71-85; Chitnis, M., Sorrell, S., (2015) Living Up to Expectations. Estimating Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects for UK Households, , Brighton, United Kingdom; (2010) A Portfolio of Power-Trains for Europe: A Fact-Based Analysis, p. 2010. , M&C; Hawkins, T.R., Singh, B., Majeau-Bettez, G., Stromman, A.H., Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles (2013) J. Ind. Ecol., 17 (1), pp. 53-64; Bartolozzi, I., Rizzi, F., Frey, M., Comparison between hydrogen and electric vehicles by life cycle assessment: A case study in Tuscany, Italy (2013) Appl. Energy, 101, pp. 103-111; (2014) European Vehicle Market Statistics. Pocketbook 2014, , ICCT. Berlin, Germany; (2014) EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions. Trends to 2050, , EC. Luxembourg; Freire-González, J., Methods to empirically estimate direct and indirect rebound effect of energy-saving technological changes in households (2011) Ecological Modelling - Can We Break the Addiction to Fossil Energy? Special Issue, 7th Biennial International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies, Barcelona, Spain, 19-21 October 2010, 223, pp. 32-40. , In; Nässén, J., Holmberg, J., Quantifying the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvements and energy conserving behaviour in Sweden (2009) Energy Efficiency, 2 (3), pp. 221-231; Berkhout, P.H.G., Muskens, J.C., Velthuijsen, W., Defining the rebound effect (2000) Energy Policy, 28 (67), pp. 425-432; Sorrell, S., Dimitropoulos, J., The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions (2008) Ecological Economics, 65 (3), pp. 636-649; (2014) Evolution. Electric Vehicles in Europe: Gearing Up for A New Phase?, , ARF/M&C; The Netherlands; De Jong, G., Gunn, H., Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe (2001) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 35 (2), pp. 137-160; Deaton, A., Muellbauer, J., An Almost Ideal Demand System (1980) American Economic Review, 70 (3), pp. 312-326; Eurostat Products datasets(2006), ISO. ISO14044:2006Environmental management - life cycle assessment - requirementsand guidelines(2010), Ecoinvent, Ecoinvent data v2.2, 2010. Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: SwitzerlandHeijungs, R., Suh, S., (2002) The Computational Structure of Life Cycle Assessment, , Kluwer Academic Publishers: The Netherlands; Joshi, S., Product Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment Using Input-Output Techniques (1999) J. Ind. Ecol., 3 (23), pp. 95-120; Gibbons, J.C., Wolsky, A.M., Tolley, G., Approximate aggregation and error in input-output models (1982) Resources and Energy, 4 (3), pp. 203-230; Lenzen, M., A Generalized Input-Output Multiplier Calculus for Australia (2001) Economic Systems Research, 13 (1), pp. 65-92; Udo De Haes, H.A., Heijungs, R., Suh, S., Huppes, G., Three Strategies to Overcome the Limitations of Life-Cycle Assessment (2004) J. Ind. Ecol., 8 (3), pp. 19-32; Lenzen, M., Errors in Conventional and Input-Output - Based Life - Cycle Inventories (2000) J. Ind. Ecol., 4 (4), pp. 127-148; Suh, S., Lenzen, M., Treloar, G.J., Hondo, H., Horvath, A., Huppes, G., Jolliet, O., Norris, G., System Boundary Selection in Life-Cycle Inventories Using Hybrid Approaches (2004) Environ. Sci. Technol., 38 (3), pp. 657-664; Vendries Algarin, J., Hawkins, T.R., Marriott, J., Scott Matthews, H., Khanna, V., Disaggregating the Power Generation Sector for Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (2015) J. Ind. Ecol., 19 (4), pp. 666-675; http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/prodcom/data/database, Eurostat Statistics on the production of manufactured goodsMiller, R.E., Blair, P.D., (2009) Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, , Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom; Leontief, W., Environmental repercussions and the economic structure: An input-output approach (1970) Review of Economics and Statistics, 52 (3), pp. 262-271; Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Raa, T.T., THE CHOICE of MODEL in the CONSTRUCTION of INDUSTRY COEFFICIENTS MATRICES (2009) Economic Systems Research, 21 (4), pp. 363-376; Huppes, G., De Koning, A., Guinée, J., Heijungs, R., Van Oers, L., Cml, R.K., (2009) Environmental Impacts of Diet Changes in the EU Annex: Description of E3IOT; Timmer, M.P., Dietzenbacher, E., Los, B., Stehrer, R., De Vries, G.J., An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database: The Case of Global Automotive Production (2015) Review of International Economics, 23 (3), pp. 575-605; Tukker, A., De Koning, A., Wood, R., Hawkins, T., Lutter, S., Acosta, J., Rueda Cantuche, J.M., Kuenen, J., EXIOPOL - DEVELOPMENT and ILLUSTRATIVE ANALYSES of A DETAILED GLOBAL MR EE SUT/IOT (2013) Economic Systems Research, 25 (1), pp. 50-70; Saunders, H.D., A calculator for energy consumption changes arising from new technologies (2005) Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 5 (1). , 1935-1682; Huppes, G., De Koning, A., Suh, S., Heijungs, R., Van Oers, L., Nielsen, P., Guinée, J.B., Environmental Impacts of Consumption in the European Union:High-Resolution Input-Output Tables with Detailed Environmental Extensions (2006) J. Ind. Ecol., 10 (3). , 129-146; Su, B., Huang, H.C., Ang, B.W., Zhou, P., Input-output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of sector aggregation (2010) Energy Economics, 32 (1), pp. 166-175; Moran, D., Wood, R., CONVERGENCE between the EORA, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and OPENEU'S CONSUMPTION-BASED CARBON ACCOUNTS (2014) Economic Systems Research, 26 (3), pp. 245-261; Thomas, B.A., Azevedo, S.L., I, Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. Households with input-output analysis. Part 2: Simulation (2013) Ecological Economics - Sustainable Urbanisation: A Resilient Future, 86, pp. 188-198. , In; Mattila, T.J., Pakarinen, S., Sokka, L., Quantifying the Total Environmental Impacts of an Industrial Symbiosis - A Comparison of Process-, Hybrid and Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (2010) Environ. Sci. Technol., 44 (11), pp. 4309-4314; Wiedmann, T.O., Suh, S., Feng, K., Lenzen, M., Acquaye, A., Scott, K., Barrett, J.R., Application of Hybrid Life Cycle Approaches to Emerging Energy Technologies - The Case of Wind Power in the UK (2011) Environ. Sci. Technol., 45 (13), pp. 5900-5907; Suh, S., Huppes, G., Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input-output analysis (2002) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 7 (3), pp. 134-140; Schoer, K., Wood, R., Arto, I., Weinzettel, J., Estimating Raw Material Equivalents on a Macro-Level: Comparison of Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis and Hybrid LCI-IO (2013) Environ. Sci. Technol., 47 (24), pp. 14282-14289; Weinzettel, J., Steen-Olsen, K., Hertwich, E.G., Borucke, M., Galli, A., Ecological footprint of nations: Comparison of process analysis, and standard and hybrid multiregional input-output analysis (2014) Ecological Economics, 101, pp. 115-126; Arto, I., Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., Peters, G.P., COMPARING the GTAP-MRIO and WIOD DATABASES for CARBON FOOTPRINT ANALYSIS (2014) Economic Systems Research, 26 (3), pp. 327-353; Luo, L., Van Der Voet, E., Huppes, G., Udo De Haes, H., Allocation issues in LCA methodology: A case study of corn stover-based fuel ethanol (2009) Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 14 (6), pp. 529-539

PY - 2016/10/18

Y1 - 2016/10/18

N2 - Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes - from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices - with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments. © 2016 American Chemical Society.

AB - Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes - from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices - with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments. © 2016 American Chemical Society.

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Background systems

KW - Economic condition

KW - Environmental assessment methods

KW - Environmental burdens

KW - Environmental model

KW - Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

KW - Resource efficiencies

KW - Total cost of ownership

KW - Life cycle

KW - LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT

KW - EXTENSIONS

KW - EMISSIONS

KW - ENERGY EFFICIENCY

KW - US HOUSEHOLDS

KW - EUROPE

KW - UK HOUSEHOLDS

KW - INPUT-OUTPUT-ANALYSIS

KW - IMPACTS

KW - CONSUMPTION

U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.6b01871

DO - 10.1021/acs.est.6b01871

M3 - Article

C2 - 27626810

SN - 0013-936X

VL - 50

SP - 11366

EP - 11376

JO - Environmental Science & Technology

JF - Environmental Science & Technology

IS - 20

ER -