TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of survival and local control in laryngeal carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy alone: A cohort study based on 994 patients
AU - Egelmeer, Ada G. T. M.
AU - Velazquez, E. Rios
AU - de Jong, Jos M. A.
AU - Oberije, Cary
AU - Geussens, Yasmyne
AU - Nuyts, Sandra
AU - Kremer, Bernd
AU - Rietveld, Derek
AU - Leemans, C. Rene
AU - de Jong, Monique C.
AU - Rasch, Coen R.
AU - Hoebers, Frank
AU - Homer, Jarrod
AU - Slevin, Nick
AU - West, Catharine M.
AU - Lambin, Philippe
PY - 2011/7
Y1 - 2011/7
N2 - Introduction: To advise laryngeal carcinoma patients on the most appropriate form of treatment, a tool to predict survival and local control is needed. Materials and methods: We performed a population-based cohort study on 994 laryngeal carcinoma patients, treated with RT from 1977 until 2008. Two nomograms were developed and validated. Performance of the models is expressed as the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Results: Unfavorable prognostic factors for overall survival were low hemoglobin level, male sex, high T-status, nodal involvement, older age, lower EQD(2T) (total radiation dose corrected for fraction dose and overall treatment time), and non-glottic tumor. All factors except tumor location were prognostic for local control. The AUCs were 0.73 for overall survival and 0.67 for local control. External validation of the survival model yielded AUCs of 0.68, 0.74, 0.76 and 0.71 for the Leuven (n = 109), the VU Amsterdam (n = 178), the Manchester (n = 403) and the NKI cohort (n = 205), respectively, while the validation procedure for the local control model resulted in AUCs of 0.70, 0.71, 0.72 and 0.62. The resulting nomograms were made available on the website www.predictcancer.org. Conclusions: For patients with a laryngeal carcinoma treated with RT alone, we have developed visual, easy-to-use nomograms for the prediction of overall survival and primary local control. These models have been successfully validated in four external centers.
AB - Introduction: To advise laryngeal carcinoma patients on the most appropriate form of treatment, a tool to predict survival and local control is needed. Materials and methods: We performed a population-based cohort study on 994 laryngeal carcinoma patients, treated with RT from 1977 until 2008. Two nomograms were developed and validated. Performance of the models is expressed as the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Results: Unfavorable prognostic factors for overall survival were low hemoglobin level, male sex, high T-status, nodal involvement, older age, lower EQD(2T) (total radiation dose corrected for fraction dose and overall treatment time), and non-glottic tumor. All factors except tumor location were prognostic for local control. The AUCs were 0.73 for overall survival and 0.67 for local control. External validation of the survival model yielded AUCs of 0.68, 0.74, 0.76 and 0.71 for the Leuven (n = 109), the VU Amsterdam (n = 178), the Manchester (n = 403) and the NKI cohort (n = 205), respectively, while the validation procedure for the local control model resulted in AUCs of 0.70, 0.71, 0.72 and 0.62. The resulting nomograms were made available on the website www.predictcancer.org. Conclusions: For patients with a laryngeal carcinoma treated with RT alone, we have developed visual, easy-to-use nomograms for the prediction of overall survival and primary local control. These models have been successfully validated in four external centers.
KW - Prediction
KW - Nomogram
KW - Laryngeal carcinoma
KW - Radiotherapy
U2 - 10.1016/j.radonc.2011.06.023
DO - 10.1016/j.radonc.2011.06.023
M3 - Article
C2 - 21784544
SN - 0167-8140
VL - 100
SP - 108
EP - 115
JO - Radiotherapy and Oncology
JF - Radiotherapy and Oncology
IS - 1
ER -