Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

RO van Merkerk*, H van Lente

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1094-1111
    Number of pages18
    JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Volume72
    Issue number9
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Nov 2005
    EventScientific Seminar on New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods - Seville, Spain
    Duration: 13 May 200414 May 2004

    Keywords

    • emerging technology
    • irreversibility
    • technology assessment
    • expectations
    • agenda building
    • CARBON NANOTUBE
    • NETWORKS

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