Towards a regime-based typology of market evolution

M.M. Dijk*, R.J. Orsato, R. Kemp

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


This paper provides a typology for the analysis of markets in which new innovations have the potential to cause regime transition. We elaborate the typology of transition pathways (Geels and Schot, 2007) into a typology of market evolution, with transition being one of the possible types. We strengthen the theoretic link between transition and industrial innovation studies by moving beyond the incremental-radical innovation dichotomy, adopted in many industrial innovation studies, as well as map out the socio-technical dimension of market evolution. We test the Regime Evolution Framework (REF), as we call it, against the introduction of steam power in trains and ships, which are well-established cases. By doing so, we are better prepared to adopt the framework for the analysis of electric propulsion systems in cars, a potentially disruptive innovation that has slowly been entering mainstream markets. The framework allows us to: (i) better qualify the categories of sustaining and disruptive innovation; (ii) understand the evolution of hybrid patterns of market innovation, since the elements of emerging disruptive innovations sometimes sustain the established technology, and; (iii) assess and map emerging market patterns.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)276-289
Number of pages14
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2015


  • Innovation typology
  • Market evolution
  • Regime
  • Transition
  • Socio-technical change
  • Disruptive innovation

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