Tipping points? Ethnic composition change in Dutch big city neighbourhoods

Micro-level studies using individual and household data have shown that
residential location choices are influenced by neighbourhood ethnic
composition. Using three conurbation samples in the Netherlands -
Amsterdam metropolitan area, Rotterdam-The Hague metropolitan area, and
the country's largest conurbation, the 'Randstad' metropolitan area -
this paper analyses the evolution of neighbourhood ethnic composition as
a social interaction outcome of disaggregated household behaviour. The
potential 'tipping point' in neighbourhood ethnic composition, beyond
which 'white flight' (or the departure of native or advantaged
households) occurs, is tested. The share in neighbourhood population of
native Dutch and western minority did not exhibit the hypothesised
'tipping' behaviour in its growth rate with respect to initial share of
non-western minority. This paper argues that the large social housing
sector, centralised tax regime, and strong regulatory role of the state
in housing and urban planning, are the main explanatory factors for the
relative constancy in Dutch neighbourhood ethnic composition.

Keywords: Ethnic segregation; Neighbourhood; Tipping point; Urban
renewal; Regression discontinuity