The risk of major and any (non-hip) fragility fracture after hip fracture in the United Kingdom: 2000-2010

D. Gibson-Smith, C. Klop, P.J.M. Elders, P.M.J. Welsing, N. van Schoor, H.G.M. Leufkens, N.C. Harvey, T.P. van Staa, F. de Vries*

*Corresponding author for this work

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The risk of a subsequent major or any fracture after a hip fracture and secular trends herein were examined. Within 1 year, 2.7 and 8.4 % of patients sustained a major or any (non-hip) fracture, which increased to 14.7 and 32.5 % after 5 years. Subsequent fracture rates increased during the study period both for major and any (non-hip) fracture. Hip fractures are associated with subsequent fractures, particularly in the year following initial fracture. Age-adjusted hip fracture rates have stabilised in many developed countries, but secular trends in subsequent fracture remain poorly documented. We thus evaluated secular trends (2000-2010) and determinants for the risk of a subsequent major (humerus, vertebral, or forearm) and any (non-hip) fracture after hip fracture. Patients a parts per thousand yen50 years with a hip fracture between 2000 and 2010 were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (n = 30,516). Incidence rates, cumulative incidence probabilities, and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were calculated. Within 1 year following hip fracture, 2.7 and 8.4 % of patients sustained a major or any (non-hip) fracture, which increased to 14.7 and 32.5 % after 5 years, respectively. The most important risk factors for a subsequent major fracture within 1 year were the female gender [aHR 1.90, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.51-2.40] and a history of secondary osteoporosis (aHR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.17-2.02). The annual risk increased during the study period for both subsequent major (2009-2010 vs. 2000-2002: aHR 1.44, 95 % CI 1.12-1.83) and any (non-hip) facture (2009-2010 vs. 2000-2002: aHR 1.80, 95 % CI 1.58-2.06). The risk of sustaining a major or any (non-hip) fracture after hip fracture is small in the first year. However, given the recent rise in secondary fracture rates and the substantial risk of subsequent fracture in the longer term, fracture prevention is clearly indicated for patients who have sustained a hip fracture.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2555-2563
Number of pages9
JournalOsteoporosis International
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2014


  • Incidence
  • Osteoporosis
  • Osteoporotic fracture
  • Secular trends
  • Subsequent fracture

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