The identification of cases of major hemorrhage during hospitalization in patients with acute leukemia using routinely recorded healthcare data

Introduction Electronic health care data offers the opportunity to study rare events, although detecting these events in large datasets remains difficult. We aimed to develop a model to identify leukemia patients with major hemorrhages within routinely recorded health records. Methods The model was developed using routinely recorded health records of a cohort of leukemia patients admitted to an academic hospital in the Netherlands between June 2011 and December 2015. Major hemorrhage was assessed by chart review. The model comprised CT-brain, hemoglobin drop, and transfusion need within 24 hours for which the best discriminating cut off values were taken. External validation was performed within a cohort of two other academic hospitals. Results The derivation cohort consisted of 255 patients, 10,638 hospitalization days, of which chart review was performed for 353 days. The incidence of major hemorrhage was 0.22 per 100 days in hospital. The model consisted of CT-brain (yes/no), hemoglobin drop of >= 0.8 g/dl and transfusion of >= 6 units. The C-statistic was 0.988 (CI 0.981-0.995). In the external validation cohort of 436 patients (19,188 days), the incidence of major hemorrhage was 0.46 per 100 hospitalization days and the C-statistic was 0.975 (CI 0.970-0.980). Presence of at least one indicator had a sensitivity of 100% (CI 95.8-100) and a specificity of 90.7% (CI 90.2-91.1). The number of days to screen to find one case decreased from 217.4 to 23.6. Interpretation A model based on information on CT-brain, hemoglobin drop and need of transfusions can accurately identify cases of major hemorrhage within routinely recorded health records.