The Gateway Belief Model: A pre-registered large-scale replication in China

Climate change is a global problem that needs to be addressed, but public support for action remains a challenge. According to the Gateway Belief Model (GBM), emphasizing the scientific consensus on the issue predicts changes in cognitive and emotional responses related to climate change, which in turn predict increased support for public action. However, evidence from non-WEIRD populations is lacking for this model. The current study conducted a confirmatory replication of the GBM for the first time in China using a national quota sample (N = 1506). The results suggest that consensus messaging increased participants' perceived scientific consensus, their beliefs that global warming is happening and human caused, as well as support for public action on global warming. Furthermore, the results partially support the mediation hypothesis of the GBM. Experimentally induced changes in perceived scientific consensus directly predicted subsequent changes in general attitudes toward public actions, support for specific government policies, and behavioral intentions. We further found an interaction between participants’ self-reported impact of global warming and the consensus manipulation. Participants less impacted by global warming were more likely to change their perceptions to align with the consensus after being exposed to the consensus message. These findings emphasize the critical role of consensus messaging in enhancing public support for global warming actions in China, especially among those less impacted by global warming.