The evolution of renal function and the incidence of end-stage renal disease in patients aged >= 50 years

Gijs Van Pottelbergh*, Stephaan Bartholomeeusen, Frank Buntinx, Jan Degryse

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

29 Citations (Web of Science)


Background. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is high, especially among older patients. Methods. In order to identify risk factors for the evolution towards end-stage renal disease (ESRD), a cohort of patients >= 50 years of age for whom at least four serum creatinine measurements were available were selected from a primary care-based database. The slope of changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula) was calculated, and ESRD was defined as eGFR = 80 years compared with patients aged 50-64 years). Females (HR = 1.48) and patients with diabetes (HR = 1.20), hypertension (HR = 1.25), high total cholesterol (HR = 1.28) or high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (HR = 1.39) were at higher risk for ESRD. Conclusions. Baseline eGFR, diabetes, high cholesterol, high LDL, hypertension and female gender are independent risk factors for developing ESRD. Older age at baseline predicts a lower risk.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2297-2303
JournalNephrology Dialysis Transplantation
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2012


  • chronic kidney disease
  • end-stage renal disease
  • glomerular filtration rate
  • older patients
  • primary health care

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