The contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy differences and lifespan disparities in the European Union: a population-based study

Background: Twenty years after the 2004 European Union (EU) enlargement, life expectancy differences between established (EMS) and new member states (NMS) remain large. Contributing to this gap are deaths that can be avoided through preventive services or adequate medical treatment. We estimate the impact of reducing avoidable mortality on life expectancy and lifespan disparities in the enlarged EU. Methods: Using World Health Organization mortality database data, we analysed the potential of reducing avoidable mortality, as defined by Eurostat and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, to close the mortality gap between NMS and EMS. We decomposed the changes in life expectancy and lifespan disparity by age and cause using linear integral decomposition. Findings: Averting all avoidable deaths across the EU from 2005 to 2019 would decrease the average life expectancy gap from 5.8 to 2.4 years in men and 3.3–2 years in women and eliminate the lifespan disparity gap. Had NMS achieved the average EMS avoidable mortality rates during the same period, the average life expectancy gap would have been reduced to 1.8 years in men and 1.6 years in women, and the lifespan disparities gap would have been reversed. Avoidable circulatory and injury-related deaths in middle and older age drove the observed mortality changes. Interpretation: Our results suggest that the gap in life expectancy and lifespan disparity across the EU could be reduced by strengthening health systems and investing in averting circulatory and injury-related deaths in middle and older age in NMS. Funding: None.