The Benefit of Non Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Angiography for Predicting Vascular Access Surgery Outcome: A Computer Model Perspective

Introduction: Vascular access (VA) surgery, a prerequisite for hemodialysis treatment of end-stage renal-disease (ESRD) patients, is hampered by complication rates, which are frequently related to flow enhancement. To assist in VA surgery planning, a patient-specific computer model for postoperative flow enhancement was developed. The purpose of this study is to assess the benefit of non contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography (NCE-MRA) data as patient-specific geometrical input for the model-based prediction of surgery outcome. Methods: 25 ESRD patients were included in this study. All patients received a NCE-MRA examination of the upper extremity blood vessels in addition to routine ultrasound (US). Local arterial radii were assessed from NCE-MRA and converted to model input using a linear fit per artery. Venous radii were determined with US. The effect of radius measurement uncertainty on model predictions was accounted for by performing Monte-Carlo simulations. The resulting flow prediction interval of the computer model was compared with the postoperative flow obtained from US. Patients with no overlap between model-based prediction and postoperative measurement were further analyzed to determine whether an increase in geometrical detail improved computer model prediction. Results: Overlap between postoperative flows and model-based predictions was obtained for 71% of patients. Detailed inspection of non-overlapping cases revealed that the geometrical details that could be assessed from NCE-MRA explained most of the differences, and moreover, upon addition of these details in the computer model the flow predictions improved. Conclusions: The results demonstrate clearly that NCE-MRA does provide valuable geometrical information for VA surgery planning. Therefore, it is recommended to use this modality, at least for patients at risk for local or global narrowing of the blood vessels as well as for patients for whom an US-based model prediction would not overlap with surgical choice, as the geometrical details are crucial for obtaining accurate flow predictions.