Scenario planning: An alternative approach to European commission for combating antimicrobial resistance by 2050

Laura Patricia Orellana García*, Kiranjeet Kaur, Helmut Brand, Peter Schröder-Bäck

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Aim: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the major health challenges of the future, but the concrete impact of counteracting measures is still unclear. To study possible outcomes within the European Union, a scenario analysis for the year 2050 was performed on the possible influence of the European Commission (EC). Methods: Scenario planning and development of strategies based on different scenarios. Results: Rational use of antimicrobials in animals and humans, surveillance and monitoring, new antimicrobial therapies, travel and globalization, exposure to the environment, and awareness were recognized as the main driving elements. Four Scenarios were developed: An efficient and implicated EC sorts out AMR; An implicated but unsuccessful EC withstands AMR; AMR is managed regardless of the EC disinterest; and A neutral and inefficient EC fails to manage AMR. Conclusion: All the strategies developed on the basis of the four scenarios probe for an increase in European Union's dedication to achieve positive outcomes. These include the development of effective legislation and international coordination.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalSouth Eastern European Journal of Public Health
Publication statusPublished - 2021


  • Antimicrobial resistance
  • European commission
  • One health
  • Scenario planning
  • Strate-gies

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