Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

P. Valkering*, R. van der Brugge, A. Offermans, N. Rijkens-Klomp

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    14 Citations (Web of Science)


    Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water-society interactions.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)229-241
    Number of pages13
    JournalRegional Environmental Change
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - Jun 2011


    • Climate adaptation
    • Perspectives mapping tool
    • River management
    • Scenario analysis
    • Stakeholder participation

    Cite this