Risk Stratification in Older Intensively Treated Patients With AML

Jurjen Versluis*, Marlen Metzner, Ariel Wang, Patrycja Gradowska, Abin Thomas, Niels Asger Jakobsen, Alison Kennedy, Rachel Moore, Emma Boertjes, Christian M Vonk, Francois G Kavelaars, Melissa Rijken, Amanda Gilkes, Claire Schwab, H Berna Beverloo, Markus Manz, Otto Visser, Catharina H M J Van Elssen, Okke de Weerdt, Lidwine W TickBart J Biemond, Marie-Christiane Vekemans, Sylvie D Freeman, Christine J Harrison, Jonathan A Cook, Mike Dennis, Steven Knapper, Ian Thomas, Charles Craddock, Gert J Ossenkoppele, Bob Löwenberg, Nigel Russell, Peter J M Valk, Paresh Vyas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

PURPOSE AML is a genetically heterogeneous disease, particularly in older patients. In patients older than 60 years, survival rates are variable after the most important curative approach, intensive chemotherapy followed by allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT). Thus, there is an urgent need in clinical practice for a prognostic model to identify older patients with AML who benefit from curative treatment. METHODS We studied 1,910 intensively treated patients older than 60 years with AML and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (HR-MDS) from two cohorts (NCRIAML18 and HOVON-SAKK). The median patient age was 67 years. Using a random survival forest, clinical, molecular, and cytogenetic variables were evaluated in an AML development cohort (n = 1,204) for association with overall survival (OS). Relative weights of selected variables determined the prognostic model, which was validated in AML (n = 491) and HR-MDS cohorts (n = 215). RESULTS The complete cohort had a high frequency of poor-risk features, including 2022 European LeukemiaNet adverse-risk (57.3%), mutated TP53 (14.4%), and myelodysplasia-related genetic features (65.1%). Nine variables were used to construct four groups with highly distinct 4-year OS in the (1) AML development, (2) AML validation, and (3) HR-MDS test cohorts ([1] favorable: 54% ± 4%, intermediate: 38% ± 2%, poor: 21% ± 2%, very poor: 4% ± 1%; [2] 54% ± 9%, 43% ± 4%, 27% ± 4%, 4% ± 3%; and [3] 54% ± 10%, 33% ± 6%, 14% ± 5%, 0% ± 3%, respectively). This new AML60+ classification improves current prognostic classifications. Importantly, patients within the AML60+ intermediate- and very poor-risk group significantly benefited from allo-HCT, whereas the poor-risk patients showed an indication, albeit nonsignificant, for improved outcome after allo-HCT. CONCLUSION The new AML60+ classification provides prognostic information for intensively treated patients 60 years and older with AML and HR-MDS and identifies patients who benefit from intensive chemotherapy and allo-HCT.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberJCO.23.02631
Pages (from-to)2302631
JournalJournal of Clinical Oncology
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 4 Sept 2024

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