TY - JOUR
T1 - Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays
AU - Van Der Veere, Pieter J.
AU - Van Harten, Argonde C.
AU - Van Maurik, Ingrid S.
AU - Teunissen, Charlotte E.
AU - Barkhof, Frederik
AU - Vos, Stephanie J. B.
AU - Froelich, Lutz
AU - Kornhuber, Johannes
AU - Wiltfang, Jens
AU - Maier, Wolfgang
AU - Peters, Oliver
AU - Ruther, Eckart
AU - Frisoni, Giovanni B.
AU - Spiru, Luiza
AU - Freund-levi, Yvonne
AU - Wallin, Asa K.
AU - Hampel, Harald
AU - Tsolaki, Magda
AU - Kloszewska, Iwona
AU - Mecocci, Patrizia
AU - Vellas, Bruno
AU - Lovestone, Simon
AU - Galluzzi, Samantha
AU - Herukka, Sanna-kaisa
AU - Santana, Isabel
AU - Baldeiras, I.
AU - De Mendonca, Alexandre
AU - Silva, Dina
AU - Chetelat, Gael
AU - Poisnel, Geraldine
AU - Visser, Pieter Jelle
AU - Johnson, Sterling C.
AU - Stormrud, Erik
AU - Hansson, Oskar
AU - Palmqvist, Sebastian
AU - Pinol-ripoll, Gerard
AU - Berkhof, Johannes
AU - Van Der Flier, Wiesje M.
PY - 2026/2/9
Y1 - 2026/2/9
N2 - INTRODUCTION Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants. DISCUSSION We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.
AB - INTRODUCTION Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants. DISCUSSION We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.
KW - Alzheimer's disease
KW - automated cerebrospinal fluid assays
KW - cerebrospinal fluid
KW - dementia
KW - mild cognitive dementia
KW - prediction
U2 - 10.1002/alz.71192
DO - 10.1002/alz.71192
M3 - Article
SN - 1552-5260
VL - 22
JO - Alzheimer's & Dementia
JF - Alzheimer's & Dementia
IS - 2
M1 - e71192
ER -