Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis

A. Catalan*, S. Tognin, M.J. Kempton, D. Stahl, G.S. de Pablo, B. Nelson, C. Pantelis, A. Riecher-Rossler, R. Bressan, N. Barrantes-Vidal, M.O. Krebs, M. Nordentoft, S. Ruhrmann, G. Sachs, B.P.F. Rutten, J. van Os, L. de Haan, M. van der Gaag, L.R. Valmaggia, P. McGuireEU-GEI High Risk Study

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Background Psychosis is associated with a reasoning bias, which manifests as a tendency to 'jump to conclusions'. We examined this bias in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) and investigated its relationship with their clinical outcomes. Methods In total, 303 CHR subjects and 57 healthy controls (HC) were included. Both groups were assessed at baseline, and after 1 and 2 years. A 'beads' task was used to assess reasoning bias. Symptoms and level of functioning were assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States scale (CAARMS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), respectively. During follow up, 58 (16.1%) of the CHR group developed psychosis (CHR-T), and 245 did not (CHR-NT). Logistic regressions, multilevel mixed models, and Cox regression were used to analyse the relationship between reasoning bias and transition to psychosis and level of functioning, at each time point. Results There was no association between reasoning bias at baseline and the subsequent onset of psychosis. However, when assessed after the transition to psychosis, CHR-T participants showed a greater tendency to jump to conclusions than CHR-NT and HC participants (55, 17, 17%; chi 2 = 8.13, p = 0.012). There was a significant association between jumping to conclusions (JTC) at baseline and a reduced level of functioning at 2-year follow-up in the CHR group after adjusting for transition, gender, ethnicity, age, and IQ. Conclusions In CHR participants, JTC at baseline was associated with adverse functioning at the follow-up. Interventions designed to improve JTC could be beneficial in the CHR population.
Original languageEnglish
Article number0033291720003396
Pages (from-to)1569-1577
Number of pages9
JournalPsychological Medicine
Volume52
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2022

Keywords

  • DELUSIONAL CONVICTION
  • Functioning
  • INDIVIDUALS
  • MECHANISMS
  • REASONING BIASES
  • RELIABILITY
  • SCALE
  • SCHIZOPHRENIA
  • SYMPTOMS
  • VALIDITY
  • psychosis
  • transition to psychosis
  • ultra high-risk

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