TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive Value of the Additive and Logistic EuroSCOREs in Patients Undergoing Aortic Valve Replacement
AU - Koene, Bart M. J. A.
AU - van Straten, Albert H. M.
AU - Hamad, Mohamed A. Soliman
AU - Berreklouw, Eric
AU - ter Woorst, F. Joost
AU - Tan, M. Erwin S. H.
AU - van Zundert, Andre J.
PY - 2011/12
Y1 - 2011/12
N2 - The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in predicting the operative mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.This was a single-center study performed in an educational hospital.All patients (n = 1,885) who underwent AVR with (n = 813) or without (n = 1,072) CABG surgery between 1998 and 2007.AVR with or without CABG surgery.Variable life-adjusted display curves were constructed to compare the observed operative mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the discriminatory power of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. Calibration between the predicted and the observed operative mortality was checked by comparing the predicted probability of the mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE. In the isolated AVR group, the additive EuroSCORE was 5.8% predicted mortality and the logistic EuroSCORE was 7.2%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 3.2%. In the AVR with CABG surgery group, the additive EuroSCORE was 7.2% and the logistic EuroSCORE was 8.8%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 5.3%. ROC curve analyses showed a high discriminatory power for both EuroSCOREs in both patient groups.Although the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs had good discriminatory power, they were not able to predict the actual operative mortality accurately. Both EuroSCOREs overestimated the operative mortality, especially in low-risk patients.
AB - The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in predicting the operative mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.This was a single-center study performed in an educational hospital.All patients (n = 1,885) who underwent AVR with (n = 813) or without (n = 1,072) CABG surgery between 1998 and 2007.AVR with or without CABG surgery.Variable life-adjusted display curves were constructed to compare the observed operative mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the discriminatory power of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. Calibration between the predicted and the observed operative mortality was checked by comparing the predicted probability of the mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE. In the isolated AVR group, the additive EuroSCORE was 5.8% predicted mortality and the logistic EuroSCORE was 7.2%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 3.2%. In the AVR with CABG surgery group, the additive EuroSCORE was 7.2% and the logistic EuroSCORE was 8.8%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 5.3%. ROC curve analyses showed a high discriminatory power for both EuroSCOREs in both patient groups.Although the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs had good discriminatory power, they were not able to predict the actual operative mortality accurately. Both EuroSCOREs overestimated the operative mortality, especially in low-risk patients.
KW - aortic valve
KW - replacement
KW - EuroSCORE
KW - mortality
KW - risk indices
KW - risk scores
U2 - 10.1053/j.jvca.2011.05.010
DO - 10.1053/j.jvca.2011.05.010
M3 - Article
C2 - 21723746
SN - 1053-0770
VL - 25
SP - 1071
EP - 1075
JO - Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia
JF - Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia
IS - 6
ER -