Prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with curative-intent conventional radiotherapy

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important side effect of thoracic Radiotherapy (RT), which may impair quality of life and survival. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for new-onset AF in patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) receiving RT alone or as a part of their multi-modal treatment. Patients and Methods: Patients with stage I-IV NSCLC treated with curative-intent conventional photon RT were included. The baseline electrocardiogram (ECG) was compared with follow-up ECGs to identify the occurrence of new-onset AF. A wide range of potential clinical predictors and dose-volume measures on the whole heart and six automatically contoured cardiac substructures, including chambers and conduction nodes, were considered for statistical modeling. Internal validation with optimism-correction was performed. A nomogram was made. Results: 374 patients (mean age 69 ± 10 years, 57 % male) were included. At baseline, 9.1 % of patients had AF, and 42 (11.2 %) patients developed new-onset AF. The following parameters were predictive: older age (OR=1.04, 95 % CI: 1.013–1.068), being overweight or obese (OR=1.791, 95 % CI: 1.139–2.816), alcohol use (OR=4.052, 95 % CI: 2.445–6.715), history of cardiac procedures (OR=2.329, 95 % CI: 1.287–4.215), tumor located in the upper lobe (OR=2.571, 95 % CI: 1.518–4.355), higher forced expiratory volume in 1 s (OR=0.989, 95 % CI: 0.979–0.999), higher creatinine (OR=1.008, 95 % CI: 1.002–1.014), concurrent chemotherapy (OR=3.266, 95 % CI: 1.757 to 6.07) and left atrium D _max (OR=1.022, 95 % CI: 1.012–1.032). The model showed good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.80, 95 % CI: 0.76–0.84), calibration and positive net benefits. Conclusion: This prediction model employs readily available predictors to identify patients at high risk of new-onset AF who could potentially benefit from active screening and timely management of post-RT AF.