Predicting progression to dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment using cerebrospinal fluid markers

Ron L. H. Handels*, Stephanie J. B. Vos, Milica G. Kramberger, Vesna Jelic, Kaj Blennow, Mark van Buchem, Wiesje van der Flier, Yvonne Freund-Levi, Harald Hampel, Marcel Olde Rikkert, Ania Oleksik, Zvezdan Pirtosek, Philip Scheltens, Hilkka Soininen, Charlotte Teunissen, Magda Tsolaki, Asa K. Wallin, Bengt Winblad, Frans R. J. Verhey, Pieter Jelle Visser

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Introduction: We aimed to determine the added value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to clinical and imaging tests to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to any type of dementia.

Methods: The risk of progression to dementia was estimated using two logistic regression models based on 250 MCI participants: the first included standard clinical measures (demographic, clinical, and imaging test information) without CSF biomarkers, and the second included standard clinical measures with CSF biomarkers.

Results: Adding CSF improved predictive accuracy with 0.11 (scale from 0-1). Of all participants, 136 (54%) had a change in risk score of 0.10 or higher (which was considered clinically relevant), of whom in 101, it was in agreement with their dementia status at follow-up.

Discussion: An individual person's risk of progression from MCI to dementia can be improved by relying on CSF biomarkers in addition to recommended clinical and imaging tests for usual care. (C) 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)903-912
Number of pages10
JournalAlzheimer's & Dementia
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2017


  • Dementia
  • Alzheimer's disease
  • Mild cognitive impairment
  • Prognosis
  • Risk
  • Progression
  • Predict
  • Conversion
  • Reclassification
  • Risk prediction model
  • MRI
  • MCI


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