Poor trends - The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda

We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss
historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates
until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings
stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but
regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction
at 1.25$ a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a
poverty rate of 8-9% in 2030, far short of the World Bank's new 3%
target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2$ a day, with an
additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.

Keywords: poverty, inequality, consumption growth