Abstract
We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss
historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates
until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings
stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but
regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction
at 1.25$ a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a
poverty rate of 8-9% in 2030, far short of the World Bank's new 3%
target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2$ a day, with an
additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.
Keywords: poverty, inequality, consumption growth
historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates
until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings
stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but
regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction
at 1.25$ a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a
poverty rate of 8-9% in 2030, far short of the World Bank's new 3%
target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2$ a day, with an
additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.
Keywords: poverty, inequality, consumption growth
Original language | English |
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Place of Publication | Maastricht |
Publisher | UNU-MERIT |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 2014 |
Publication series
Series | UNU-MERIT Working Papers |
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Number | 006 |