Persistent droughts in Northern Africa

Climate extremes have devastating socio-economic and environmental impacts globally, with the highest impact in developing countries. There is a need for building resilience against the observed and projected extremes. The effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation measures is based on the understanding of their occurrence and the associated impacts. This chapter delves into the historical context of persistent droughts in North Africa, focusing on Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Results based on an analysis of tree-ring data spanning 1000 years show the recurrent nature of drought episodes and their impact on agriculture. The chapter provides insights into the frequency and severity of droughts in each of the countries, emphasizing significant historical events, such as the severe drought in Algeria and Tunisia from 1999 to 2002, attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Recent drought periods in Morocco and Tunisia are explored, detailing the impact on wheat harvests, and highlighting the decline in precipitation trends. The focus extends to Egypt, given its dependence on River Nile and the historical consequences of reduced flows, including severe famines. The complex factors influencing drought, such as global teleconnections, sea surface temperature anomalies, and anthropogenic contributions, are discussed. Finally, the chapter employs the standardized precipitation index to analyze the persistence of drought, revealing spatial and seasonal variability and providing valuable insights for water resource and agriculture management in the region.