Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

Marco Russo; Guglielmo Saitto; Antonio Lio; Michele Di Mauro; Paolo Berretta; Maurizio Taramasso; Roberto Scrofani; Alessandro Della Corte; Sandro Sponga; Ernesto Greco; Matteo Saccocci; Antonio Calafiore; Giacomo Bianchi; Andrea Biondi; Irene Binaco; Ester Della Ratta; Ugolino Livi; Paul Werner; Carlo De Vincentiis; Federico Ranocchi; Marco Di Eusanio; Alfred Kocher; Carlo Antona; Fabio Miraldi; Giovanni Troise; Marco Solinas; Francesco Maisano; Guenther Laufer; Francesco Musumeci; Martin Andreas

doi:10.1111/jocs.16483

Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

Marco Russo^*, Guglielmo Saitto, Antonio Lio, Michele Di Mauro, Paolo Berretta, Maurizio Taramasso, Roberto Scrofani, Alessandro Della Corte, Sandro Sponga, Ernesto Greco, Matteo Saccocci, Antonio Calafiore, Giacomo Bianchi, Andrea Biondi, Irene Binaco, Ester Della Ratta, Ugolino Livi, Paul Werner, Carlo De Vincentiis, Federico RanocchiMarco Di Eusanio, Alfred Kocher, Carlo Antona, Fabio Miraldi, Giovanni Troise, Marco Solinas, Francesco Maisano, Guenther Laufer, Francesco Musumeci, Martin Andreas

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.

METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.

RESULTS: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.

CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1959-1966
Number of pages	8
Journal	Journal of Cardiac Surgery
Volume	37
Issue number	7
Early online date	6 Apr 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/jocs.16483
Publication status	Published - Jul 2022

Keywords

REGURGITATION
RISK MODELS
SOCIETY
replacement
valve repair

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10.1111/jocs.16483Licence: CC BY

Cite this

Russo, M., Saitto, G., Lio, A., Di Mauro, M., Berretta, P., Taramasso, M., Scrofani, R., Della Corte, A., Sponga, S., Greco, E., Saccocci, M., Calafiore, A., Bianchi, G., Biondi, A., Binaco, I., Della Ratta, E., Livi, U., Werner, P., De Vincentiis, C., ... Andreas, M. (2022). Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery. Journal of Cardiac Surgery, 37(7), 1959-1966. https://doi.org/10.1111/jocs.16483

@article{bfbf38f9f3c54b478f67de1c33057b70,

title = "Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.RESULTS: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.",

keywords = "REGURGITATION, RISK MODELS, SOCIETY, replacement, valve repair",

author = "Marco Russo and Guglielmo Saitto and Antonio Lio and {Di Mauro}, Michele and Paolo Berretta and Maurizio Taramasso and Roberto Scrofani and {Della Corte}, Alessandro and Sandro Sponga and Ernesto Greco and Matteo Saccocci and Antonio Calafiore and Giacomo Bianchi and Andrea Biondi and Irene Binaco and {Della Ratta}, Ester and Ugolino Livi and Paul Werner and {De Vincentiis}, Carlo and Federico Ranocchi and {Di Eusanio}, Marco and Alfred Kocher and Carlo Antona and Fabio Miraldi and Giovanni Troise and Marco Solinas and Francesco Maisano and Guenther Laufer and Francesco Musumeci and Martin Andreas",

note = "{\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.",

year = "2022",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1111/jocs.16483",

language = "English",

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Russo, M, Saitto, G, Lio, A, Di Mauro, M, Berretta, P, Taramasso, M, Scrofani, R, Della Corte, A, Sponga, S, Greco, E, Saccocci, M, Calafiore, A, Bianchi, G, Biondi, A, Binaco, I, Della Ratta, E, Livi, U, Werner, P, De Vincentiis, C, Ranocchi, F, Di Eusanio, M, Kocher, A, Antona, C, Miraldi, F, Troise, G, Solinas, M, Maisano, F, Laufer, G, Musumeci, F & Andreas, M 2022, 'Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery', Journal of Cardiac Surgery, vol. 37, no. 7, pp. 1959-1966. https://doi.org/10.1111/jocs.16483

TY - JOUR

T1 - Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

AU - Russo, Marco

AU - Saitto, Guglielmo

AU - Lio, Antonio

AU - Di Mauro, Michele

AU - Berretta, Paolo

AU - Taramasso, Maurizio

AU - Scrofani, Roberto

AU - Della Corte, Alessandro

AU - Sponga, Sandro

AU - Greco, Ernesto

AU - Saccocci, Matteo

AU - Calafiore, Antonio

AU - Bianchi, Giacomo

AU - Biondi, Andrea

AU - Binaco, Irene

AU - Della Ratta, Ester

AU - Livi, Ugolino

AU - Werner, Paul

AU - De Vincentiis, Carlo

AU - Ranocchi, Federico

AU - Di Eusanio, Marco

AU - Kocher, Alfred

AU - Antona, Carlo

AU - Miraldi, Fabio

AU - Troise, Giovanni

AU - Solinas, Marco

AU - Maisano, Francesco

AU - Laufer, Guenther

AU - Musumeci, Francesco

AU - Andreas, Martin

PY - 2022/7

Y1 - 2022/7

N2 - BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.RESULTS: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.

AB - BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.RESULTS: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.

KW - REGURGITATION

KW - RISK MODELS

KW - SOCIETY

KW - replacement

KW - valve repair

U2 - 10.1111/jocs.16483

DO - 10.1111/jocs.16483

M3 - Article

C2 - 35385588

SN - 0886-0440

VL - 37

SP - 1959

EP - 1966

JO - Journal of Cardiac Surgery

JF - Journal of Cardiac Surgery

IS - 7

ER -