Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

Marco Russo*, Guglielmo Saitto, Antonio Lio, Michele Di Mauro, Paolo Berretta, Maurizio Taramasso, Roberto Scrofani, Alessandro Della Corte, Sandro Sponga, Ernesto Greco, Matteo Saccocci, Antonio Calafiore, Giacomo Bianchi, Andrea Biondi, Irene Binaco, Ester Della Ratta, Ugolino Livi, Paul Werner, Carlo De Vincentiis, Federico RanocchiMarco Di Eusanio, Alfred Kocher, Carlo Antona, Fabio Miraldi, Giovanni Troise, Marco Solinas, Francesco Maisano, Guenther Laufer, Francesco Musumeci, Martin Andreas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.

METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.

RESULTS: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.

CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1959-1966
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Cardiac Surgery
Issue number7
Early online date6 Apr 2022
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022


  • replacement
  • valve repair


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