NEETs phenomenon as a socioeconomic epidemic: Support for policymakers on the role of migration aspirations and proximity to economic powers

This paper examines the NEET phenomenon as a socioeconomic epidemic. It addresses NEET dynamics at both the population and individual levels in North Africa. We argue that NEET status is transmitted through ideational contact and propose that proximity to Europe and migration aspirations act as non-traditional factors in this transmission. The analysis draws on multiple data sources. From a cross-country perspective, we rely on the World Bank's and SAHWA's surveys covering 45 African countries. From an intra-country perspective, we draw on longitudinal data from the Moroccan National Employment Survey, the World Bank (2014-2022), and local administrative archives to analyze Morocco's NEET dynamics as a representative case for North Africa. This study makes several original contributions. First, it conceptualizes the NEET phenomenon as a socioeconomic epidemic that spreads among individuals through contact with other NEETs. Second, it adapts the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze NEET dynamics in Morocco. This innovative approach allows us to construct the basic reproduction number (R0) and to identify thresholds that govern NEET trends: stagnation, extinction, and persistence. Theoretically, this approach demonstrates the relevance of epidemiological modeling in explaining how socioeconomic phenomena like NEETs spread and persist. Practically, it identifies a critical threshold for policymakers, beyond which the spread of NEETs becomes difficult to reverse. The findings further show that proximity to major economic centers and strong migration aspirations contribute to the expansion of NEETs. This underscores the need for integrated policy responses to curb the growth of NEET populations in their origin countries and prevent their effects from spilling over into destination countries.