Political stock markets (psm) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioural model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in psm can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate psm during the berlin 1999 state elections.
Hansen, J., Schmidt, C., & Strobel, M. (2004). Manipulation in Political Stock Markets - Preconditions and Evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 11(7, June), 459-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485042000191700