Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

Jorge Ridderstaat*, Marck Oduber, Robertico Croes, Peter Nijkamp, Pim Martens

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleProfessional

    68 Citations (Web of Science)

    Abstract

    This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)245-256
    JournalTourism Management
    Volume41
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Apr 2014

    Keywords

    • Seasonality
    • Tourism demand
    • Climate
    • Panel regression
    • Small island
    • Aruba

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