Humanitarian concerns and threat perceptions: An analysis of the key drivers of refugee attitudes in Germany

Public perceptions of humanitarian migration are shaped by conflicting sentiments, balancing perceived threats against humanitarian responsibilities. While many studies have explored the relevance of threat perceptions, there is a lack of systematic investigation into the role of humanitarian concern, including its determinants and implications. This research addresses this gap by developing a theoretical framework that examines how humanitarian and threat factors influence attitudes toward refugees, from which several hypotheses are derived. These are then tested through a large-scale online survey experiment in Germany, where respondents are shown professionally produced videos about Syrian refugees. The results confirm a strong association between a general humanitarian orientation and concerns for refugees' wellbeing and stress the potential of humanitarian messaging to increase humanitarian concerns and support for on-site assistance. Conversely, emphasizing the presence of young refugee men heightens perceived cultural threats and reduces support for refugee admissions. The treatment effects vary significantly between respondents from East and West Germany. Our findings illuminate the nuanced dynamics of the two main drivers of refugee attitudes and highlight the relevance and limitations of public narratives.