TY - JOUR
T1 - GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting
AU - Duffy, C.
AU - Prudhomme, R.
AU - Duffy, B.
AU - Gibbons, J.
AU - O'Donoghue, C.
AU - Ryan, M.
AU - Styles, D.
N1 - Funding Information:
Financial support. This research has been supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (grant no. EPA 2018-CCRP-MS.57).
Funding Information:
Thank you to the Environmental Protection Agency (Ireland), the James Hutton Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, University of Limerick, and Teagasc for the facilitation of this research. The James Hutton Institute is supported by the Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services Division (RESAS), a division of the Scottish Government. This research has been supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (grant no. EPA 2018-CCRP-MS.57).
Funding Information:
Acknowledgements. Thank you to the Environmental Protection Agency (Ireland), the James Hutton Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, University of Limerick, and Teagasc for the facilitation of this research. The James Hutton Institute is supported by the Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services Division (RESAS), a division of the Scottish Government.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Colm Duffy et al.
PY - 2022/3/16
Y1 - 2022/3/16
N2 - The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2g g C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of "net zero"greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40g % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level.
AB - The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2g g C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of "net zero"greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40g % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level.
U2 - 10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022
DO - 10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022
M3 - Article
SN - 1991-959X
VL - 15
SP - 2239
EP - 2264
JO - Geoscientific Model Development
JF - Geoscientific Model Development
IS - 5
ER -