Fundamentals or trends? A long-term perspective on house prices

P.M.A. Eichholtz, R. Huisman, R. Zwinkels

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Using a long-term time series covering 350 years of house prices along the Herengracht in Amsterdam, we examine whether a fundamental factor or a trend explains house prices and whether their explanatory power is time varying. We find that agents in the housing market switch in their formation of expectations about future changes in house prices between fundamental and momentum strategies. Specifically, we show that agents base their expectations more on fundamentals during economic slowdowns and more on recent trends or momentum during economic booms.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1050-1059
Number of pages10
JournalApplied Economics
Volume47
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2015

Keywords

  • housing markets
  • behavioural economics
  • agent-based models
  • historical prices
  • MARKET
  • DYNAMICS
  • INDEX
  • MODEL

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