External validation and clinical utility of prognostic prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort study

Linda J. E. Meertens*, Hubertina C. J. Scheepers, Sander M. J. van Kuijk, Nel Roeleveld, Robert Aardenburg, Ivo M. A. van Dooren, Josje Langenveld, Iris M. Zwaan, Marc E. A. Spaanderman, Marleen M. H. J. van Gelder, Luc J. M. Smits

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

6 Citations (Web of Science)

Abstract

Introduction We performed an independent validation study of all published first trimester prediction models, containing non-invasive predictors, for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, the clinical potential of the best performing models was evaluated. Material and methods Systemically selected prediction models from the literature were validated in a Dutch prospective cohort using data from Expect Study I and PRIDE Study. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. Screening performance measures were calculated at different risk thresholds for the best model and compared with current selective screening strategies. Results The validation cohort included 5260 women. Gestational diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in 127 women (2.4%). The discriminative performance of the 12 included models ranged from 68% to 75%. Nearly all models overestimated the risk. After recalibration, agreement between the observed outcomes and predicted probabilities improved for most models. Conclusions The best performing prediction models showed acceptable performance measures and may enable more personalized medicine-based antenatal care for women at risk of developing gestational diabetes mellitus compared with current applied strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)891-900
Number of pages10
JournalActa Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
Volume99
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020

Keywords

  • decision curve analysis
  • external validation
  • gestational diabetes mellitus
  • prediction
  • risk assessment
  • 1ST TRIMESTER PREDICTION
  • WEB-BASED QUESTIONNAIRES
  • RISK
  • PREVALENCE
  • PREGNANCY
  • IMPACT
  • WOMEN
  • COST

Cite this