Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting

T. Bollerslev, A. Patton, R. Quaedvlieg

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Abstract

We propose a new family of easy-to-implement realized volatility based forecasting models. The models exploit the asymptotic theory for high-frequency realized volatility estimation to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. By allowing the parameters of the models to vary explicitly with the (estimated) degree of measurement error, the models exhibit stronger persistence, and in turn generate more responsive forecasts, when the measurement error is relatively low. Implementing the new class of models for the S&P 500 equity index and the individual constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we document significant improvements in the accuracy of the resulting forecasts compared to the forecasts from some of the most popular existing models that implicitly ignore the temporal variation in the magnitude of the realized volatility measurement errors.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Econometrics
Volume192
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2016

JEL classifications

  • c22 - "Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models"
  • c51 - Model Construction and Estimation
  • c53 - "Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods "
  • c58 - Financial Econometrics

Keywords

  • Realized volatility
  • Forecasting
  • Measurement errors
  • HAR
  • HARQ
  • MICROSTRUCTURE NOISE
  • ECONOMETRIC-ANALYSIS
  • REALIZED VARIANCE
  • TIME-SERIES
  • COVARIANCE
  • KERNELS
  • MODELS

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