Event simulation and external validation applied in published health economic models for obesity: a systematic review

Bjoern Schwander*, Mark Nuijten, Mickael Hiligsmann, Silvia M. A. A. Evers

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

4 Citations (Web of Science)

Abstract

Introduction: This study aims to determine methodological variations in the event simulation approaches of published health economic decision models, in the field of obesity, and to investigate whether their predictiveness and validity were investigated via external event validation techniques, which investigate how well the model reproduces reality.Areas covered: A systematic review identified a total of 87 relevant papers, of which 72 that simulated obesity-associated events were included. Most frequently simulated events were coronary heart disease (approximate to 83%), type 2 diabetes (approximate to 74%), and stroke (approximate to 66%). Only for ten published model-based health economic assessments in obesity an external event validation was performed (14%; 10 of 72), and only for one the predictiveness and validity of the event simulation was investigated in a cohort of obese subjects.Expert commentary: We identified a wide range of obesity related event simulation approaches. Published obesity models lack information on the predictive quality and validity of the applied event simulation approaches. Further work on comparing and validating these event simulation approaches is required to investigate their predictiveness and validity, which will offer guidance future modelling in the field of obesity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)529-541
Number of pages13
JournalExpert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research
Volume18
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

Keywords

  • Obesity
  • clinical events
  • external event validation
  • decision models
  • health economic assessment
  • simulation
  • stroke
  • type 2 diabetes
  • coronary heart disease
  • systematic review
  • TYPE-2 DIABETES-MELLITUS
  • COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS
  • BARIATRIC SURGERY
  • HIGH-RISK
  • CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE
  • PRIMARY PREVENTION
  • CONTROLLED-TRIAL
  • GASTRIC BYPASS
  • LIFETIME RISK
  • INTERVENTIONS

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