Evaluating the effect of point-sampling on univariate point and interval forecasting of cerebral physiologic signals using ARIMA modeling in acute traumatic neural injury

High-resolution physiological signals, such as intracranial pressure (ICP) and regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO<inf>2</inf>), are critical for managing traumatic brain injury (TBI) by enabling continuous monitoring of cerebral autoregulation and vascular reactivity. These signals provide essential insights into brain perfusion dynamics, supporting timely clinical interventions. However, the high temporal resolution of these data introduces challenges in real-time use, integration into predictive models, and computational efficiency. Consequently, resolution reduction techniques are essential for simplifying the data while retaining critical features necessary for accurate prediction and modeling. Using the Multi-omic Analytics and Integrative Neuroinformatics in the HUman Brain (MAIN-HUB) Lab database, high-frequency cerebral physiologic dataset, we aimed to evaluate the effects of point-sampling resolution reduction on point and interval predictions using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for both raw signals and derived indices. Temporal resolution was reduced by selecting the first value within non-overlapping intervals, ranging from 1-min (min) to 12-h windows. A total of 125 patient data was analyzed across various temporal resolutions. The results indicated that ARIMA models performed well at higher resolutions (e.g., 1-min), capturing short-term physiological dynamics with lower errors. However, as resolution decreased, errors and variability increased, particularly for signals like mean arterial pressure (MAP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), which exhibit rapid or complex physiological changes. The findings underscore the need to carefully balance temporal resolution, model performance, and computational efficiency, especially when dealing with high-frequency physiological data in clinical settings.