Dynamics of Skill Demand and Mismatch in the Dutch Labor Market: Evidence from Online Job Postings and VET Curricula

We study the dynamics of skill demand for recent vocational education
graduates over time, across sectors of education and occupational
domains. Our analyses combine approximately 7 million online job
postings (2021–2023), 109,789 graduate survey responses (2022–2024),
and national VET curriculum data (2016–2021) in the Netherlands. Using
online job postings, we classify a comprehensive set of required skills
into six O*Net skill categories: basic, social, technical, systems, complex
problem-solving, and resource management skills. We document
substantial heterogeneity in skill requirements across occupations.
Linking these data with skill supply measures derived from vocational
education curricula, we find a positive correlation between skill supply
and demand across occupations. Furthermore, we construct an
individual-level measure of skill mismatch and show that higher
measured mismatch is associated with greater self-reported mismatch
and lower monthly earnings and hourly wages. Consistent with prior
literature, our findings suggest that skill mismatch contributes to wage
differences.