Duration dependence in sickness absence: how can we optimize disability management intervention strategies?

OBJECTIVE: The optimal timing of interventions during sickness absence remains difficult to determine, because we do not have a clear picture of the presence and type of duration dependence that exists. This study investigates the impact of an intervention by the occupational physician as well as of socioeconomic and work-related factors on duration dependence during sickness absence.

METHODS: Analyses were performed at the population level using data from a major longitudinal survey on work incapacity and return to work in The Netherlands. Several models of duration dependence are estimated.

RESULTS: Evidence is found for the presence of variable-duration dependence. Characteristics that influence duration dependence of the return-to-work (RTW) rate are identified.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings imply that RTW intervention strategies should vary according to differences in workers' susceptibility to positive or negative duration-dependence effects.