Different prognostic models for different patient populations: validation of a new prognostic model for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in Western Europe

M. M. Rietbergen, B. I. Witte, E. R. Velazquez, P. J. F. Snijders, E. Bloemena, E. J. Speel, R. H. Brakenhoff*, B. Kremer, P. Lambin, C. R. Leemans

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

28 Citations (Web of Science)


Objective: The presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is a major determinant in prognostic risk modelling. Recently, a prognostic model was proposed in which HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage were the most important prognostic factors to determine high-, intermediate-and low-risk survival groups. Here, we report on the validation of this model using an independent single-institutional cohort. Methods: A total number of 235 patients curatively treated for OPSCC in the period 2000-2011 at the MUMC (Maastricht University Medical Center, The Netherlands) were included. The presence of an oncogenic HPV infection was determined by p16 immunostaining, followed by a high-risk HPV DNA PCR on the p16-positive cases. The model variables included were HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage. As a measure of model performance, the Harrell's Concordance index (Harrell's C-index) was used. Results: The 5-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 84.6%, 54.5% and 28.7% in the low-, intermediate-and high-risk group, respectively. The difference between the survival curves was highly significant (P
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1733-1736
JournalBritish Journal of Cancer
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 26 May 2015


  • human papillomavirus
  • oropharyngeal cancer
  • prognostic model validation

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