Development strategies for the green hydrogen economy in emerging economies

Green hydrogen is widely recognized as a promising solution for reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability. It holds significant potential for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, such as steel and chemicals, and for fostering industrial development, job creation, and technological learning. However, the pathways through which emerging economies can effectively seize these opportunities remain underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing the green hydrogen strategies of Brazil, Chile, China, and South Africa. Drawing on extensive data, including stakeholder interviews, governmental documents, and academic sources, it uncovers marked contrasts in how these countries approach this window of opportunity. While Chile and South Africa prioritize green hydrogen, and Chile adopts an export-oriented agenda, Brazil and China adopt more technology-agnostic approaches that emphasize domestic markets. These variations reflect differences in natural resource endowments, energy infrastructure, and market dynamics. The analysis reveals that industrial policies across these countries focus predominantly on supply-side measures, with demand-side incentives lagging behind. Moreover, private sector responses often diverge from national strategies, illustrating the challenges of aligning policies with market realities. The findings emphasize the need for tailored, context-sensitive approaches to green hydrogen development, challenging the notion of a universal blueprint. For policymakers in the Global South, this study offers critical insights for leveraging green hydrogen for industrial transformation.