Democratic Reform and Backsliding in the Post-Soviet Area: What Role for the EU?

Giselle Bosse*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademic

Abstract

This chapter aims to explain why some countries in the post-Soviet area show more steady progress in the implementation of democratic reforms and alignment with the European Union (EU)’s political acquis than others. Since the end of the Cold War, most states in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia have embarked on some form of democratic transition. Yet, the scope and content of the reforms varies significantly across states. Particularly puzzling are developments since the mid 2000s, when democracy scores across the region began to slow down or decline, such as in Ukraine, Armenia, or the Russian Federation. A wide array of explanations has already been advanced in the literature. However, current explanations are based mainly on single case studies, which makes it difficult to account for the broader variation of democratic reform across the countries in the post-Soviet area. This chapter identifies the main determinants of democratic reform and backsliding through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) across thirteen countries in the post-Soviet area between 2006 and 2018. It shows that only a combination of EU-specific, domestic, and external factors accounts for the variation in the pace of democratic reforms in post-Soviet countries. While the EU is found to be a sufficient factor in democratic reform, autonomous social capital is identified as a necessary condition. Moreover, EU assistance can have positive but also negative effects on democracy. And dependence on the Russian Federation, considered an external autocracy promoter, can curtail but also fuel democratic reform progress.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRedefining EU Membership
Subtitle of host publicationDifferentiation In and Outside the European Union
EditorsDiane Fromage
PublisherOxford University Press
Chapter14
Pages291-316
Number of pages26
ISBN (Electronic)9780191948145
ISBN (Print)9780192857347
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2024

Keywords

  • Central Asia
  • Conditionality
  • Democracy
  • Democratization
  • Eastern Partnership
  • European Neighbourhood Policy
  • Social capital

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