TY - JOUR
T1 - Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression
AU - van de Leemput, Ingrid A.
AU - Wichers, Marieke
AU - Cramer, Angelique O. J.
AU - Borsboom, Denny
AU - Tuerlinckx, Francis
AU - Kuppens, Peter
AU - van Nes, Egbert H.
AU - Viechtbauer, Wolfgang
AU - Giltay, Erik J.
AU - Aggen, Steven H.
AU - Derom, Catherine
AU - Jacobs, Nele
AU - Kendler, Kenneth S.
AU - van der Maas, Han L. J.
AU - Neale, Michael C.
AU - Peeters, Frenk
AU - Thiery, Evert
AU - Zachar, Peter
AU - Scheffer, Marten
PY - 2014/1/7
Y1 - 2014/1/7
N2 - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.
AB - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.
KW - early warning signals
KW - experience sampling method
KW - critical transitions
KW - positive feedback
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1312114110
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1312114110
M3 - Article
C2 - 24324144
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 111
SP - 87
EP - 92
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 1
ER -