Clinicopathologic predictors of early relapse in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: development of prediction models using nationwide data

Objective: To identify clinicopathologic factors predictive of early relapse (platinum-free interval (PFI) of <= 6 months) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in first-line treatment, and to develop and internally validate risk prediction models for early relapse. Methods: All consecutive patients diagnosed with advanced stage EOC between 01-01-2008 and 31-12-2015 were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery and platinumbased chemotherapy as initial EOC treatment were selected. Two prediction models, i.e. pretreatment and postoperative, were developed. Candidate predictors of early relapse were fitted into multivariable logistic regression models. Model performance was assessed on calibration and discrimination. Internal validation was performed through bootstrapping to correct for model optimism. Results: A total of 4,557 advanced EOC patients were identified, including 1,302 early relapsers and 3,171 late or non-relapsers. Early relapsers were more likely to have FIGO stage IV, mucinous or clear cell type EOC, ascites, >1 cm residual disease, and to have undergone NACT-ICS. The final pretreatment model demonstrated subpar model performance (AUC = 0.64 [95 %-CI 0.62-0.66]). The final postoperative model based on age, FIGO stage, pretreatment CA-125 level, histologic subtype, presence of ascites, treatment approach, and residual disease after debulking, demonstrated adequate model performance (AUC = 0.72 [95 %-CI 0.71-0.74]). Bootstrap validation revealed minimal optimism of the final postoperative model. Conclusion: A (postoperative) discriminative model has been developed and presented online that predicts the risk of early relapse in advanced EOC patients. Although external validation is still required, this prediction model can support patient counselling in daily clinical practice.